Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.7%
Fair Odds 2.65
Draw
28.66%
Fair Odds 3.49
Away Win
33.64%
Fair Odds 2.97
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.87% Fair Odds 7.77

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.65 —
Draw 3.49 —
Away Win 2.97 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.87% 7.77
2 1-0 10.64% 9.4
3 0-1 10.13% 9.87
4 0-0 8.37% 11.94
5 2-1 8.17% 12.24
6 1-2 7.79% 12.84
7 2-0 6.75% 14.81
8 0-2 6.13% 16.31
9 2-2 4.94% 20.23
10 3-1 3.46% 28.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.37%
11.94
10.13%
9.87
6.13%
16.31
2.47%
40.44
0.75%
133.69
0.18%
552.49
1
10.64%
9.4
12.87%
7.77
7.79%
12.84
3.14%
31.85
0.95%
105.27
0.23%
434.97
2
6.75%
14.81
8.17%
12.24
4.94%
20.23
1.99%
50.15
0.6%
165.78
0.15%
684.93
3
2.86%
34.98
3.46%
28.91
2.09%
47.78
0.84%
118.47
0.26%
391.54
0.06%
1618.12
4
0.91%
110.17
1.1%
91.05
0.66%
150.49
0.27%
373.13
0.08%
1233.05
0.02%
5102.04
5
0.23%
433.65
0.28%
358.42
0.17%
592.42
0.07%
1468.43
0.02%
4854.37
0.01%
20000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.35% · Fair: 281.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.92% 28.08%
1.5 36.25% 63.75%
2.5 13.6% 86.4%
3.5 4.02% 95.98%
4.5 0.97% 99.03%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.37% 11.94
1 20.77% 4.82
2 25.75% 3.88
3 21.29% 4.70
4 13.20% 7.58
5+ 10.62% 9.42
Over 2.5 45.1% Under 2.5 54.9%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.70%
Draw 28.66%
Away Win 33.64%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.1%
Under 2.5 54.9%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.47%
No 49.53%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.74% 17.43 10.95% 9.13 83.31% 1.2
-1.5 16.69% 5.99 — 83.31% 1.2
-1.0 16.69% 5.99 21.19% 4.72 62.12% 1.61
-0.5 37.88% 2.64 — 62.12% 1.61
0 (PK) 37.88% 2.64 27.12% 3.69 35.01% 2.86
+0.5 64.99% 1.54 — 35.01% 2.86
+1.0 64.99% 1.54 20.19% 4.95 14.82% 6.75
+1.5 85.18% 1.17 — 14.82% 6.75
+2.0 85.18% 1.17 9.94% 10.06 4.88% 20.5

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.