Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.18%
Fair Odds 2.69
Draw
28.8%
Fair Odds 3.47
Away Win
34.02%
Fair Odds 2.94
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.92% Fair Odds 7.74

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.69 —
Draw 3.47 —
Away Win 2.94 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.92% 7.74
2 1-0 10.68% 9.36
3 0-1 10.34% 9.67
4 0-0 8.54% 11.7
5 2-1 8.08% 12.38
6 1-2 7.82% 12.79
7 2-0 6.67% 14.98
8 0-2 6.25% 15.99
9 2-2 4.89% 20.47
10 3-1 3.37% 29.72
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.54%
11.7
10.34%
9.67
6.25%
15.99
2.52%
39.64
0.76%
131.04
0.18%
541.42
1
10.68%
9.36
12.92%
7.74
7.82%
12.79
3.15%
31.71
0.95%
104.84
0.23%
433.28
2
6.67%
14.98
8.08%
12.38
4.89%
20.47
1.97%
50.74
0.6%
167.73
0.14%
693.0
3
2.78%
35.96
3.37%
29.72
2.04%
49.12
0.82%
121.79
0.25%
402.58
0.06%
1663.89
4
0.87%
115.06
1.05%
95.09
0.64%
157.18
0.26%
389.71
0.08%
1288.66
0.02%
5319.15
5
0.22%
460.19
0.26%
380.37
0.16%
628.54
0.06%
1557.63
0.02%
5154.64
0.0%
21276.6
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.34% · Fair: 294.29
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 71.35% 28.65%
1.5 35.54% 64.46%
2.5 13.15% 86.85%
3.5 3.83% 96.17%
4.5 0.91% 99.09%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.54% 11.70
1 21.02% 4.76
2 25.85% 3.87
3 21.20% 4.72
4 13.04% 7.67
5+ 10.35% 9.66
Over 2.5 44.59% Under 2.5 55.41%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.18%
Draw 28.80%
Away Win 34.02%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 44.59%
Under 2.5 55.41%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.07%
No 49.93%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.52% 18.12 10.74% 9.31 83.74% 1.19
-1.5 16.26% 6.15 — 83.74% 1.19
-1.0 16.26% 6.15 21.07% 4.75 62.67% 1.6
-0.5 37.33% 2.68 — 62.67% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.33% 2.68 27.26% 3.67 35.41% 2.82
+0.5 64.59% 1.55 — 35.41% 2.82
+1.0 64.59% 1.55 20.39% 4.9 15.02% 6.66
+1.5 84.98% 1.18 — 15.02% 6.66
+2.0 84.98% 1.18 10.07% 9.93 4.95% 20.2

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.