Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.82%
Fair Odds 3.14
Draw
29.8%
Fair Odds 3.36
Away Win
38.38%
Fair Odds 2.61
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.21% Fair Odds 7.57

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.14 —
Draw 3.36 —
Away Win 2.61 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.21% 7.57
2 0-1 12.01% 8.33
3 1-0 10.92% 9.16
4 0-0 9.93% 10.07
5 1-2 7.99% 12.51
6 0-2 7.27% 13.76
7 2-1 7.27% 13.76
8 2-0 6.01% 16.65
9 2-2 4.4% 22.75
10 1-3 3.22% 31.02
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.93%
10.07
12.01%
8.33
7.27%
13.76
2.93%
34.12
0.89%
112.79
0.21%
466.2
1
10.92%
9.16
13.21%
7.57
7.99%
12.51
3.22%
31.02
0.98%
102.54
0.24%
423.73
2
6.01%
16.65
7.27%
13.76
4.4%
22.75
1.77%
56.4
0.54%
186.43
0.13%
770.42
3
2.2%
45.42
2.66%
37.53
1.61%
62.04
0.65%
153.82
0.2%
508.39
0.05%
2100.84
4
0.61%
165.15
0.73%
136.48
0.44%
225.58
0.18%
559.28
0.05%
1848.43
0.01%
7633.59
5
0.13%
750.75
0.16%
620.35
0.1%
1025.64
0.04%
2544.53
0.01%
8403.36
0.0%
34482.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.25% · Fair: 395.1
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.71% 33.29%
1.5 30.1% 69.9%
2.5 9.96% 90.04%
3.5 2.57% 97.43%
4.5 0.54% 99.46%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.93% 10.07
1 22.93% 4.36
2 26.48% 3.78
3 20.39% 4.90
4 11.78% 8.49
5+ 8.49% 11.78
Over 2.5 40.66% Under 2.5 59.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.82%
Draw 29.80%
Away Win 38.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.66%
Under 2.5 59.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.82%
No 53.18%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.03% 24.84 9.15% 10.92 86.82% 1.15
-1.5 13.18% 7.59 — 86.82% 1.15
-1.0 13.18% 7.59 19.99% 5.0 66.83% 1.5
-0.5 33.17% 3.01 — 66.83% 1.5
0 (PK) 33.17% 3.01 28.24% 3.54 38.59% 2.59
+0.5 61.41% 1.63 — 38.59% 2.59
+1.0 61.41% 1.63 21.99% 4.55 16.6% 6.02
+1.5 83.4% 1.2 — 16.6% 6.02
+2.0 83.4% 1.2 11.08% 9.03 5.53% 18.1

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.