Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.31%
Fair Odds 2.07
Draw
25.49%
Fair Odds 3.92
Away Win
26.2%
Fair Odds 3.82
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.27% Fair Odds 8.87

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.07 —
Draw 3.92 —
Away Win 3.82 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.27% 8.87
2 2-1 9.52% 10.5
3 1-0 9.39% 10.65
4 2-0 7.94% 12.6
5 1-2 6.76% 14.79
6 0-1 6.67% 14.99
7 2-2 5.71% 17.5
8 0-0 5.56% 17.99
9 3-1 5.37% 18.64
10 3-0 4.47% 22.37
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.56%
17.99
6.67%
14.99
4.0%
24.99
1.6%
62.48
0.48%
208.25
0.12%
868.06
1
9.39%
10.65
11.27%
8.87
6.76%
14.79
2.71%
36.97
0.81%
123.23
0.19%
513.35
2
7.94%
12.6
9.52%
10.5
5.71%
17.5
2.29%
43.75
0.69%
145.84
0.16%
607.53
3
4.47%
22.37
5.37%
18.64
3.22%
31.06
1.29%
77.66
0.39%
258.87
0.09%
1078.75
4
1.89%
52.94
2.27%
44.12
1.36%
73.52
0.54%
183.82
0.16%
612.75
0.04%
2551.02
5
0.64%
156.62
0.77%
130.51
0.46%
217.53
0.18%
543.77
0.06%
1811.59
0.01%
7575.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.93% · Fair: 107.86
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.55% 18.45%
1.5 50.36% 49.64%
2.5 24.01% 75.99%
3.5 9.17% 90.83%
4.5 2.9% 97.1%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.56% 17.99
1 16.06% 6.23
2 23.21% 4.31
3 22.36% 4.47
4 16.15% 6.19
5+ 16.66% 6.00
Over 2.5 55.17% Under 2.5 44.83%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.31%
Draw 25.49%
Away Win 26.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 55.17%
Under 2.5 44.83%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.99%
No 43.01%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.25% 8.89 14.86% 6.73 73.89% 1.35
-1.5 26.11% 3.83 — 73.89% 1.35
-1.0 26.11% 3.83 22.74% 4.4 51.15% 1.95
-0.5 48.85% 2.05 — 51.15% 1.95
0 (PK) 48.85% 2.05 24.01% 4.17 27.14% 3.68
+0.5 72.86% 1.37 — 27.14% 3.68
+1.0 72.86% 1.37 16.15% 6.19 11.0% 9.09
+1.5 89.0% 1.12 — 11.0% 9.09
+2.0 89.0% 1.12 7.49% 13.35 3.5% 28.53

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.