Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.49%
Fair Odds 2.25
Draw
26.76%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
28.75%
Fair Odds 3.48
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.97% Fair Odds 8.35

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.25 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 3.48 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.97% 8.35
2 1-0 9.98% 10.02
3 2-1 9.16% 10.92
4 0-1 7.83% 12.78
5 2-0 7.63% 13.1
6 1-2 7.18% 13.92
7 0-0 6.52% 15.33
8 2-2 5.5% 18.19
9 0-2 4.7% 21.3
10 3-1 4.67% 21.41
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.52%
15.33
7.83%
12.78
4.7%
21.3
1.88%
53.24
0.56%
177.46
0.14%
739.64
1
9.98%
10.02
11.97%
8.35
7.18%
13.92
2.87%
34.8
0.86%
116.0
0.21%
483.33
2
7.63%
13.1
9.16%
10.92
5.5%
18.19
2.2%
45.49
0.66%
151.63
0.16%
631.71
3
3.89%
25.69
4.67%
21.41
2.8%
35.67
1.12%
89.19
0.34%
297.27
0.08%
1239.16
4
1.49%
67.15
1.79%
55.96
1.07%
93.27
0.43%
233.15
0.13%
777.0
0.03%
3236.25
5
0.46%
219.44
0.55%
182.88
0.33%
304.79
0.13%
762.2
0.04%
2538.07
0.01%
10638.3
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.64% · Fair: 156.57
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.52% 15.33
1 17.80% 5.62
2 24.30% 4.11
3 22.12% 4.52
4 15.09% 6.62
5+ 14.16% 7.06
Over 2.5 51.37% Under 2.5 48.63%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.49%
Draw 26.76%
Away Win 28.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.37%
Under 2.5 48.63%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.75%
No 45.25%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.98% 11.14 13.52% 7.4 77.51% 1.29
-1.5 22.49% 4.45 — 77.51% 1.29
-1.0 22.49% 4.45 22.41% 4.46 55.09% 1.82
-0.5 44.91% 2.23 — 55.09% 1.82
0 (PK) 44.91% 2.23 25.25% 3.96 29.84% 3.35
+0.5 70.16% 1.43 — 29.84% 3.35
+1.0 70.16% 1.43 17.58% 5.69 12.26% 8.16
+1.5 87.74% 1.14 — 12.26% 8.16
+2.0 87.74% 1.14 8.32% 12.02 3.95% 25.35

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.