Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.5%
Fair Odds 2.3
Draw
27.08%
Fair Odds 3.69
Away Win
29.42%
Fair Odds 3.4
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.14% Fair Odds 8.24

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.3 —
Draw 3.69 —
Away Win 3.4 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.14% 8.24
2 1-0 10.11% 9.89
3 2-1 9.04% 11.06
4 0-1 8.15% 12.28
5 2-0 7.54% 13.27
6 1-2 7.28% 13.73
7 0-0 6.79% 14.73
8 2-2 5.43% 18.43
9 0-2 4.89% 20.46
10 3-1 4.49% 22.27
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
8.15%
12.28
4.89%
20.46
1.96%
51.15
0.59%
170.5
0.14%
710.23
1
10.11%
9.89
12.14%
8.24
7.28%
13.73
2.91%
34.33
0.87%
114.43
0.21%
476.87
2
7.54%
13.27
9.04%
11.06
5.43%
18.43
2.17%
46.08
0.65%
153.61
0.16%
640.2
3
3.74%
26.72
4.49%
22.27
2.69%
37.11
1.08%
92.78
0.32%
309.31
0.08%
1288.66
4
1.39%
71.73
1.67%
59.78
1.0%
99.63
0.4%
249.07
0.12%
830.56
0.03%
3460.21
5
0.42%
240.73
0.5%
200.6
0.3%
334.34
0.12%
836.12
0.04%
2785.52
0.01%
11627.91
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.58% · Fair: 172.06
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.46% 22.54%
1.5 43.88% 56.12%
2.5 18.86% 81.14%
3.5 6.44% 93.56%
4.5 1.81% 98.19%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.50%
Draw 27.08%
Away Win 29.42%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.13%
No 45.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.44% 11.85 13.16% 7.6 78.4% 1.28
-1.5 21.6% 4.63 — 78.4% 1.28
-1.0 21.6% 4.63 22.29% 4.49 56.11% 1.78
-0.5 43.89% 2.28 — 56.11% 1.78
0 (PK) 43.89% 2.28 25.56% 3.91 30.55% 3.27
+0.5 69.45% 1.44 — 30.55% 3.27
+1.0 69.45% 1.44 17.95% 5.57 12.6% 7.94
+1.5 87.4% 1.14 — 12.6% 7.94
+2.0 87.4% 1.14 8.54% 11.72 4.06% 24.61

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.