Poisson football calculator: xG, score, match chance
Poisson calculator for betting / sports
How bookmakers set odds: Poisson + xG — this page helps you model that.
Uses Poisson (Wikipedia, EN).
Enter home/away xG: view odds or plain probabilities.
Improved football-tuned model: nudged draws & favorites vs plain Poisson.
Enter xG
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Match odds & output
| Result | Double | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Total
|
Over (0.5)
92.27%
|
Under (0.5)
7.73%
|
|
Over (1)
92.27%
|
Under (1)
7.73%
|
|
Over (1.5)
72.48%
|
Under (1.5)
27.52%
|
|
Over (2)
72.48%
|
Under (2)
27.52%
|
|
Over (2.5)
47.15%
|
Under (2.5)
52.85%
|
|
Over (3)
47.15%
|
Under (3)
52.85%
|
|
Over (3.5)
25.53%
|
Under (3.5)
74.47%
|
|
Over (4)
25.53%
|
Under (4)
74.47%
|
|
Over (4.5)
11.7%
|
Under (4.5)
88.3%
|
Handicap
|
Home (-2)
6.81%
|
Away (+2)
81.27%
|
|
Home (-1.5)
18.73%
|
Away (+1.5)
81.27%
|
|
Home (-1)
18.73%
|
Away (+1)
59.49%
|
|
Home (-0.5)
40.51%
|
Away (+0.5)
59.49%
|
|
Home (+0)
40.51%
|
Away (-0)
32.97%
|
|
Home (+0.5)
67.03%
|
Away (-0.5)
32.97%
|
|
Home (+1)
67.03%
|
Away (-1)
13.76%
|
|
Home (+1.5)
86.24%
|
Away (-1.5)
13.76%
|
|
Home (+2)
86.24%
|
Away (-2)
4.47%
|
Both to score (BTTS) (BTTS)
|
Yes
51.94%
|
No
48.06%
|
Home team total (OU)
|
Over (0.5)
74.33%
|
Under (0.5)
25.67%
|
|
Over (1)
74.33%
|
Under (1)
25.67%
|
|
Over (1.5)
39.43%
|
Under (1.5)
60.57%
|
|
Over (2)
39.43%
|
Under (2)
60.57%
|
|
Over (2.5)
15.69%
|
Under (2.5)
84.31%
|
|
Over (3)
15.69%
|
Under (3)
84.31%
|
|
Over (3.5)
4.93%
|
Under (3.5)
95.07%
|
|
Over (4)
4.93%
|
Under (4)
95.07%
|
|
Over (4.5)
1.27%
|
Under (4.5)
98.73%
|
Away team total (OU)
|
Over (0.5)
69.88%
|
Under (0.5)
30.12%
|
|
Over (1)
69.88%
|
Under (1)
30.12%
|
|
Over (1.5)
33.74%
|
Under (1.5)
66.26%
|
|
Over (2)
33.74%
|
Under (2)
66.26%
|
|
Over (2.5)
12.05%
|
Under (2.5)
87.95%
|
|
Over (3)
12.05%
|
Under (3)
87.95%
|
|
Over (3.5)
3.38%
|
Under (3.5)
96.62%
|
|
Over (4)
3.38%
|
Under (4)
96.62%
|
|
Over (4.5)
0.77%
|
Under (4.5)
99.23%
|
How this Poisson calculator works
It uses the following inputs:
- Home xG
- Away xG
From these it calculates:
- Prob. of each exact score
- Win / draw / win (1X2) probs
- Over/under goal probabilities
- BTTS (both to score) probabilities
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review match & market chances
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Best: blend with Elo/strength, home edge, and form
Still, Poisson is a core building block in sports & stats work
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
