Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
34.46%
Fair Odds 2.9
Draw
29.29%
Fair Odds 3.41
Away Win
36.26%
Fair Odds 2.76
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.08% Fair Odds 7.64

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.9 —
Draw 3.41 —
Away Win 2.76 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.08% 7.64
2 0-1 11.0% 9.09
3 1-0 10.9% 9.17
4 0-0 9.16% 10.91
5 1-2 7.85% 12.74
6 2-1 7.79% 12.84
7 0-2 6.6% 15.16
8 2-0 6.49% 15.41
9 2-2 4.67% 21.41
10 1-3 3.14% 31.84
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.16%
10.91
11.0%
9.09
6.6%
15.16
2.64%
37.89
0.79%
126.31
0.19%
526.32
1
10.9%
9.17
13.08%
7.64
7.85%
12.74
3.14%
31.84
0.94%
106.15
0.23%
442.28
2
6.49%
15.41
7.79%
12.84
4.67%
21.41
1.87%
53.52
0.56%
178.41
0.13%
743.49
3
2.57%
38.86
3.09%
32.38
1.85%
53.97
0.74%
134.92
0.22%
449.64
0.05%
1872.66
4
0.77%
130.62
0.92%
108.85
0.55%
181.42
0.22%
453.51
0.07%
1512.86
0.02%
6289.31
5
0.18%
548.85
0.22%
457.25
0.13%
762.2
0.05%
1904.76
0.02%
6369.43
0.0%
26315.79
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.29% · Fair: 340.14
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.16% 10.91
1 21.90% 4.57
2 26.17% 3.82
3 20.85% 4.80
4 12.46% 8.03
5+ 9.46% 10.57
Over 2.5 42.77% Under 2.5 57.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 34.46%
Draw 29.29%
Away Win 36.26%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 42.77%
Under 2.5 57.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 48.62%
No 51.38%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.93% 20.29 10.18% 9.82 84.89% 1.18
-1.5 15.11% 6.62 — 84.89% 1.18
-1.0 15.11% 6.62 20.78% 4.81 64.11% 1.56
-0.5 35.89% 2.79 — 64.11% 1.56
0 (PK) 35.89% 2.79 27.73% 3.61 36.38% 2.75
+0.5 63.62% 1.57 — 36.38% 2.75
+1.0 63.62% 1.57 20.95% 4.77 15.42% 6.48
+1.5 84.58% 1.18 — 15.42% 6.48
+2.0 84.58% 1.18 10.35% 9.66 5.07% 19.73

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.