Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.8%
Fair Odds 3.36
Draw
30.39%
Fair Odds 3.29
Away Win
39.82%
Fair Odds 2.51
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.29% Fair Odds 7.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.36 —
Draw 3.29 —
Away Win 2.51 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.29% 7.52
2 0-1 13.03% 7.67
3 1-0 11.08% 9.03
4 0-0 10.86% 9.21
5 1-2 7.98% 12.54
6 0-2 7.82% 12.79
7 2-1 6.78% 14.75
8 2-0 5.65% 17.7
9 2-2 4.07% 24.58
10 1-3 3.19% 31.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.86%
9.21
13.03%
7.67
7.82%
12.79
3.13%
31.97
0.94%
106.56
0.23%
444.05
1
11.08%
9.03
13.29%
7.52
7.98%
12.54
3.19%
31.34
0.96%
104.47
0.23%
435.35
2
5.65%
17.7
6.78%
14.75
4.07%
24.58
1.63%
61.46
0.49%
204.88
0.12%
853.24
3
1.92%
52.06
2.31%
43.38
1.38%
72.3
0.55%
180.77
0.17%
602.41
0.04%
2512.56
4
0.49%
204.16
0.59%
170.13
0.35%
283.53
0.14%
708.72
0.04%
2364.07
0.01%
9803.92
5
0.1%
1001.0
0.12%
834.03
0.07%
1390.82
0.03%
3472.22
0.01%
11627.91
0.0%
47619.05
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.22% · Fair: 463.39
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 63.94% 36.06%
1.5 27.16% 72.84%
2.5 8.4% 91.6%
3.5 2.02% 97.98%
4.5 0.4% 99.6%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.88% 30.12%
1.5 33.74% 66.26%
2.5 12.05% 87.95%
3.5 3.38% 96.62%
4.5 0.77% 99.23%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.86% 9.21
1 24.11% 4.15
2 26.76% 3.74
3 19.80% 5.05
4 10.99% 9.10
5+ 7.47% 13.39
Over 2.5 38.26% Under 2.5 61.74%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.80%
Draw 30.39%
Away Win 39.82%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.26%
Under 2.5 61.74%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.68%
No 55.32%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.35% 29.81 8.34% 11.99 88.31% 1.13
-1.5 11.69% 8.55 — 88.31% 1.13
-1.0 11.69% 8.55 19.39% 5.16 68.92% 1.45
-0.5 31.08% 3.22 — 68.92% 1.45
0 (PK) 31.08% 3.22 28.82% 3.47 40.1% 2.49
+0.5 59.9% 1.67 — 40.1% 2.49
+1.0 59.9% 1.67 22.81% 4.38 17.28% 5.79
+1.5 82.72% 1.21 — 17.28% 5.79
+2.0 82.72% 1.21 11.54% 8.67 5.74% 17.41

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.