Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.47%
Fair Odds 2.35
Draw
27.5%
Fair Odds 3.64
Away Win
30.03%
Fair Odds 3.33
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.35% Fair Odds 8.1

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.35 —
Draw 3.64 —
Away Win 3.33 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.35% 8.1
2 1-0 10.38% 9.63
3 2-1 8.89% 11.24
4 0-1 8.58% 11.66
5 2-0 7.47% 13.38
6 1-2 7.35% 13.61
7 0-0 7.21% 13.87
8 2-2 5.29% 18.9
9 0-2 5.1% 19.59
10 3-1 4.27% 23.43
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.21%
13.87
8.58%
11.66
5.1%
19.59
2.02%
49.4
0.6%
166.03
0.14%
697.84
1
10.38%
9.63
12.35%
8.1
7.35%
13.61
2.92%
34.3
0.87%
115.3
0.21%
484.5
2
7.47%
13.38
8.89%
11.24
5.29%
18.9
2.1%
47.64
0.62%
160.15
0.15%
672.95
3
3.59%
27.88
4.27%
23.43
2.54%
39.37
1.01%
99.26
0.3%
333.67
0.07%
1402.52
4
1.29%
77.44
1.54%
65.07
0.91%
109.37
0.36%
275.71
0.11%
926.78
0.03%
3891.05
5
0.37%
268.89
0.44%
225.94
0.26%
379.79
0.1%
956.94
0.03%
3215.43
0.01%
13513.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.51% · Fair: 196.08
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.31% 23.69%
1.5 42.19% 57.81%
2.5 17.62% 82.38%
3.5 5.83% 94.17%
4.5 1.59% 98.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.21% 13.87
1 18.96% 5.28
2 24.93% 4.01
3 21.85% 4.58
4 14.37% 6.96
5+ 12.69% 7.88
Over 2.5 48.91% Under 2.5 51.09%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.47%
Draw 27.50%
Away Win 30.03%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.91%
Under 2.5 51.09%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.09%
No 46.91%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.85% 12.74 12.77% 7.83 79.38% 1.26
-1.5 20.62% 4.85 — 79.38% 1.26
-1.0 20.62% 4.85 22.21% 4.5 57.17% 1.75
-0.5 42.83% 2.34 — 57.17% 1.75
0 (PK) 42.83% 2.34 25.97% 3.85 31.2% 3.21
+0.5 68.8% 1.45 — 31.2% 3.21
+1.0 68.8% 1.45 18.35% 5.45 12.85% 7.78
+1.5 87.15% 1.15 — 12.85% 7.78
+2.0 87.15% 1.15 8.72% 11.47 4.13% 24.22

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.