Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.97%
Fair Odds 2.38
Draw
27.65%
Fair Odds 3.62
Away Win
30.38%
Fair Odds 3.29
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.43% Fair Odds 8.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.38 —
Draw 3.62 —
Away Win 3.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.43% 8.05
2 1-0 10.44% 9.58
3 2-1 8.82% 11.33
4 0-1 8.75% 11.43
5 2-0 7.41% 13.49
6 1-2 7.39% 13.53
7 0-0 7.35% 13.6
8 2-2 5.25% 19.05
9 0-2 5.21% 19.21
10 3-1 4.18% 23.95
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.35%
13.6
8.75%
11.43
5.21%
19.21
2.07%
48.42
0.61%
162.76
0.15%
683.99
1
10.44%
9.58
12.43%
8.05
7.39%
13.53
2.93%
34.1
0.87%
114.61
0.21%
481.46
2
7.41%
13.49
8.82%
11.33
5.25%
19.05
2.08%
48.03
0.62%
161.42
0.15%
678.43
3
3.51%
28.5
4.18%
23.95
2.48%
40.25
0.99%
101.46
0.29%
341.06
0.07%
1432.66
4
1.25%
80.27
1.48%
67.45
0.88%
113.37
0.35%
285.8
0.1%
960.61
0.02%
4032.26
5
0.35%
282.65
0.42%
237.53
0.25%
399.2
0.1%
1006.04
0.03%
3378.38
0.01%
14285.71
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.49% · Fair: 205.85
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.83% 24.17%
1.5 41.51% 58.49%
2.5 17.14% 82.86%
3.5 5.6% 94.4%
4.5 1.51% 98.49%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.35% 13.60
1 19.19% 5.21
2 25.05% 3.99
3 21.79% 4.59
4 14.22% 7.03
5+ 12.40% 8.07
Over 2.5 48.41% Under 2.5 51.59%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.97%
Draw 27.65%
Away Win 30.38%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.41%
Under 2.5 51.59%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.76%
No 47.24%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.6% 13.16 12.58% 7.95 79.83% 1.25
-1.5 20.17% 4.96 — 79.83% 1.25
-1.0 20.17% 4.96 22.13% 4.52 57.7% 1.73
-0.5 42.3% 2.36 — 57.7% 1.73
0 (PK) 42.3% 2.36 26.13% 3.83 31.57% 3.17
+0.5 68.43% 1.46 — 31.57% 3.17
+1.0 68.43% 1.46 18.55% 5.39 13.02% 7.68
+1.5 86.98% 1.15 — 13.02% 7.68
+2.0 86.98% 1.15 8.83% 11.32 4.19% 23.86

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.