Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.71%
Fair Odds 2.4
Draw
27.73%
Fair Odds 3.61
Away Win
30.55%
Fair Odds 3.27
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.46% Fair Odds 8.02

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.4 —
Draw 3.61 —
Away Win 3.27 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.46% 8.02
2 1-0 10.47% 9.55
3 0-1 8.84% 11.31
4 2-1 8.79% 11.38
5 0-0 7.43% 13.46
6 1-2 7.42% 13.49
7 2-0 7.38% 13.54
8 0-2 5.26% 19.02
9 2-2 5.23% 19.13
10 3-1 4.13% 24.22
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.84%
11.31
5.26%
19.02
2.09%
47.94
0.62%
161.13
0.15%
677.05
1
10.47%
9.55
12.46%
8.02
7.42%
13.49
2.94%
34.0
0.88%
114.29
0.21%
480.08
2
7.38%
13.54
8.79%
11.38
5.23%
19.13
2.07%
48.23
0.62%
162.1
0.15%
681.2
3
3.47%
28.82
4.13%
24.22
2.46%
40.7
0.97%
102.61
0.29%
344.95
0.07%
1449.28
4
1.22%
81.75
1.46%
68.7
0.87%
115.46
0.34%
291.12
0.1%
978.47
0.02%
4115.23
5
0.34%
289.94
0.41%
243.61
0.24%
409.5
0.1%
1031.99
0.03%
3472.22
0.01%
14492.75
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.47% · Fair: 210.61
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.59% 24.41%
1.5 41.16% 58.84%
2.5 16.89% 83.11%
3.5 5.49% 94.51%
4.5 1.47% 98.53%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.71%
Draw 27.73%
Away Win 30.55%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.59%
No 47.41%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.47% 13.39 12.48% 8.01 80.05% 1.25
-1.5 19.95% 5.01 — 80.05% 1.25
-1.0 19.95% 5.01 22.09% 4.53 57.96% 1.73
-0.5 42.04% 2.38 — 57.96% 1.73
0 (PK) 42.04% 2.38 26.2% 3.82 31.76% 3.15
+0.5 68.24% 1.47 — 31.76% 3.15
+1.0 68.24% 1.47 18.64% 5.36 13.11% 7.63
+1.5 86.89% 1.15 — 13.11% 7.63
+2.0 86.89% 1.15 8.89% 11.25 4.22% 23.69

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.