Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
15.76%
Fair Odds 6.35
Draw
32.7%
Fair Odds 3.06
Away Win
51.54%
Fair Odds 1.94
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 21.31% Fair Odds 4.69

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 6.35 —
Draw 3.06 —
Away Win 1.94 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 21.31% 4.69
2 0-0 17.91% 5.58
3 0-2 12.68% 7.89
4 1-1 11.29% 8.85
5 1-0 9.49% 10.54
6 1-2 6.72% 14.88
7 0-3 5.03% 19.88
8 2-1 2.99% 33.41
9 1-3 2.67% 37.52
10 2-0 2.51% 39.76
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
17.91%
5.58
21.31%
4.69
12.68%
7.89
5.03%
19.88
1.5%
66.84
0.36%
280.82
1
9.49%
10.54
11.29%
8.85
6.72%
14.88
2.67%
37.52
0.79%
126.1
0.19%
529.94
2
2.51%
39.76
2.99%
33.41
1.78%
56.16
0.71%
141.56
0.21%
475.96
0.05%
2000.0
3
0.44%
225.07
0.53%
189.14
0.31%
317.86
0.12%
801.28
0.04%
2695.42
0.01%
11363.64
4
0.06%
1697.79
0.07%
1426.53
0.04%
2398.08
0.02%
6060.61
0.0%
20408.16
0.0%
83333.33
5
0.01%
16129.03
0.01%
13513.51
0.0%
22727.27
0.0%
55555.56
0.0%
200000.0
0.0%
1000000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.15% · Fair: 684.93
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 41.14% 58.86%
1.5 9.94% 90.06%
2.5 1.68% 98.32%
3.5 0.22% 99.78%
4.5 0.02% 99.98%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 17.91% 5.58
1 30.80% 3.25
2 26.49% 3.78
3 15.19% 6.58
4 6.53% 15.31
5+ 3.09% 32.36
Over 2.5 24.81% Under 2.5 75.19%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 15.76%
Draw 32.70%
Away Win 51.54%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 24.81%
Under 2.5 75.19%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 28.62%
No 71.38%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 0.59% 168.57 3.09% 32.39 96.32% 1.04
-1.5 3.68% 27.17 — 96.32% 1.04
-1.0 3.68% 27.17 12.82% 7.8 83.5% 1.2
-0.5 16.5% 6.06 — 83.5% 1.2
0 (PK) 16.5% 6.06 31.11% 3.21 52.39% 1.91
+0.5 47.61% 2.1 — 52.39% 1.91
+1.0 47.61% 2.1 28.77% 3.48 23.62% 4.23
+1.5 76.38% 1.31 — 23.62% 4.23
+2.0 76.38% 1.31 15.56% 6.43 8.06% 12.41

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.