Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.98%
Fair Odds 2.04
Draw
25.43%
Fair Odds 3.93
Away Win
25.58%
Fair Odds 3.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.26% Fair Odds 8.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.04 —
Draw 3.93 —
Away Win 3.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.26% 8.88
2 2-1 9.57% 10.45
3 1-0 9.54% 10.48
4 2-0 8.11% 12.33
5 1-2 6.64% 15.05
6 0-1 6.62% 15.1
7 2-2 5.65% 17.71
8 0-0 5.61% 17.81
9 3-1 5.42% 18.44
10 3-0 4.6% 21.76
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.61%
17.81
6.62%
15.1
3.91%
25.59
1.54%
65.05
0.45%
220.51
0.11%
934.58
1
9.54%
10.48
11.26%
8.88
6.64%
15.05
2.61%
38.27
0.77%
129.72
0.18%
549.75
2
8.11%
12.33
9.57%
10.45
5.65%
17.71
2.22%
45.02
0.66%
152.6
0.15%
646.83
3
4.6%
21.76
5.42%
18.44
3.2%
31.25
1.26%
79.45
0.37%
269.32
0.09%
1141.55
4
1.95%
51.19
2.31%
43.38
1.36%
73.53
0.53%
186.95
0.16%
633.71
0.04%
2688.17
5
0.66%
150.56
0.78%
127.58
0.46%
216.26
0.18%
549.75
0.05%
1862.2
0.01%
7874.02
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.94% · Fair: 106.76
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.73% 18.27%
1.5 50.68% 49.32%
2.5 24.28% 75.72%
3.5 9.32% 90.68%
4.5 2.96% 97.04%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.61% 17.81
1 16.17% 6.19
2 23.28% 4.30
3 22.35% 4.47
4 16.09% 6.21
5+ 16.50% 6.06
Over 2.5 54.94% Under 2.5 45.06%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.98%
Draw 25.43%
Away Win 25.58%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 54.94%
Under 2.5 45.06%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 56.62%
No 43.38%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.54% 8.66 15.09% 6.63 73.36% 1.36
-1.5 26.64% 3.75 — 73.36% 1.36
-1.0 26.64% 3.75 22.91% 4.37 50.46% 1.98
-0.5 49.54% 2.02 — 50.46% 1.98
0 (PK) 49.54% 2.02 23.95% 4.18 26.5% 3.77
+0.5 73.5% 1.36 — 26.5% 3.77
+1.0 73.5% 1.36 15.9% 6.29 10.6% 9.43
+1.5 89.4% 1.12 — 10.6% 9.43
+2.0 89.4% 1.12 7.27% 13.75 3.33% 30.01

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.