Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.88%
Fair Odds 2.51
Draw
28.39%
Fair Odds 3.52
Away Win
31.73%
Fair Odds 3.15
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.75% Fair Odds 7.84

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.51 —
Draw 3.52 —
Away Win 3.15 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.75% 7.84
2 1-0 10.81% 9.25
3 0-1 9.59% 10.43
4 2-1 8.48% 11.79
5 0-0 8.13% 12.3
6 1-2 7.52% 13.29
7 2-0 7.19% 13.91
8 0-2 5.66% 17.67
9 2-2 5.0% 19.98
10 3-1 3.76% 26.59
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.13%
12.3
9.59%
10.43
5.66%
17.67
2.23%
44.94
0.66%
152.32
0.15%
645.58
1
10.81%
9.25
12.75%
7.84
7.52%
13.29
2.96%
33.79
0.87%
114.52
0.21%
485.2
2
7.19%
13.91
8.48%
11.79
5.0%
19.98
1.97%
50.81
0.58%
172.24
0.14%
729.93
3
3.19%
31.38
3.76%
26.59
2.22%
45.08
0.87%
114.6
0.26%
388.5
0.06%
1644.74
4
1.06%
94.38
1.25%
79.98
0.74%
135.57
0.29%
344.71
0.09%
1168.22
0.02%
4950.5
5
0.28%
354.86
0.33%
300.66
0.2%
509.68
0.08%
1295.34
0.02%
4385.96
0.01%
18518.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.39% · Fair: 258.4
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 73.55% 26.45%
1.5 38.38% 61.62%
2.5 14.99% 85.01%
3.5 4.61% 95.39%
4.5 1.17% 98.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.13% 12.30
1 20.40% 4.90
2 25.60% 3.91
3 21.42% 4.67
4 13.44% 7.44
5+ 11.02% 9.08
Over 2.5 45.87% Under 2.5 54.13%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.88%
Draw 28.39%
Away Win 31.73%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.87%
Under 2.5 54.13%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.95%
No 49.05%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.55% 15.27 11.77% 8.5 81.68% 1.22
-1.5 18.32% 5.46 — 81.68% 1.22
-1.0 18.32% 5.46 21.82% 4.58 59.86% 1.67
-0.5 40.14% 2.49 — 59.86% 1.67
0 (PK) 40.14% 2.49 26.85% 3.72 33.01% 3.03
+0.5 66.99% 1.49 — 33.01% 3.03
+1.0 66.99% 1.49 19.36% 5.16 13.65% 7.33
+1.5 86.35% 1.16 — 13.65% 7.33
+2.0 86.35% 1.16 9.26% 10.8 4.39% 22.8

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.