Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
24.74%
Fair Odds 4.04
Draw
31.69%
Fair Odds 3.16
Away Win
43.58%
Fair Odds 2.29
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 15.81% Fair Odds 6.32

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.04 —
Draw 3.16 —
Away Win 2.29 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 15.81% 6.32
2 0-0 13.4% 7.46
3 1-1 13.12% 7.62
4 1-0 11.12% 8.99
5 0-2 9.33% 10.72
6 1-2 7.74% 12.92
7 2-1 5.45% 18.36
8 2-0 4.62% 21.67
9 0-3 3.67% 27.25
10 2-2 3.21% 31.12
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.4%
7.46
15.81%
6.32
9.33%
10.72
3.67%
27.25
1.08%
92.39
0.26%
391.54
1
11.12%
8.99
13.12%
7.62
7.74%
12.92
3.05%
32.84
0.9%
111.31
0.21%
471.7
2
4.62%
21.67
5.45%
18.36
3.21%
31.12
1.26%
79.13
0.37%
268.24
0.09%
1136.36
3
1.28%
78.31
1.51%
66.37
0.89%
112.49
0.35%
285.96
0.1%
969.93
0.02%
4115.23
4
0.27%
377.36
0.31%
319.9
0.18%
542.01
0.07%
1377.41
0.02%
4672.9
0.01%
19607.84
5
0.04%
2272.73
0.05%
1926.78
0.03%
3267.97
0.01%
8333.33
0.0%
27777.78
0.0%
125000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.16% · Fair: 624.22
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 56.4% 43.6%
1.5 20.2% 79.8%
2.5 5.18% 94.82%
3.5 1.03% 98.97%
4.5 0.17% 99.83%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.40% 7.46
1 26.93% 3.71
2 27.07% 3.69
3 18.13% 5.51
4 9.11% 10.97
5+ 5.36% 18.67
Over 2.5 32.6% Under 2.5 67.4%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 24.74%
Draw 31.69%
Away Win 43.58%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 32.6%
Under 2.5 67.4%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 39.07%
No 60.93%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 2.0% 49.93 6.32% 15.83 91.68% 1.09
-1.5 8.32% 12.02 — 91.68% 1.09
-1.0 8.32% 12.02 17.53% 5.7 74.15% 1.35
-0.5 25.85% 3.87 — 74.15% 1.35
0 (PK) 25.85% 3.87 30.11% 3.32 44.04% 2.27
+0.5 55.96% 1.79 — 44.04% 2.27
+1.0 55.96% 1.79 24.93% 4.01 19.11% 5.23
+1.5 80.89% 1.24 — 19.11% 5.23
+2.0 80.89% 1.24 12.77% 7.83 6.34% 15.77

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.