Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.87%
Fair Odds 4.19
Draw
31.84%
Fair Odds 3.14
Away Win
44.29%
Fair Odds 2.26
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 16.29% Fair Odds 6.14

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.19 —
Draw 3.14 —
Away Win 2.26 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 16.29% 6.14
2 0-0 13.81% 7.24
3 1-1 13.03% 7.67
4 1-0 11.05% 9.05
5 0-2 9.61% 10.4
6 1-2 7.69% 13.0
7 2-1 5.21% 19.18
8 2-0 4.42% 22.63
9 0-3 3.78% 26.45
10 2-2 3.08% 32.51
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
13.81%
7.24
16.29%
6.14
9.61%
10.4
3.78%
26.45
1.12%
89.65
0.26%
379.94
1
11.05%
9.05
13.03%
7.67
7.69%
13.0
3.02%
33.06
0.89%
112.07
0.21%
474.83
2
4.42%
22.63
5.21%
19.18
3.08%
32.51
1.21%
82.65
0.36%
280.19
0.08%
1187.65
3
1.18%
84.88
1.39%
71.93
0.82%
121.91
0.32%
309.98
0.1%
1050.42
0.02%
4444.44
4
0.24%
424.45
0.28%
359.58
0.16%
609.38
0.06%
1550.39
0.02%
5263.16
0.0%
22222.22
5
0.04%
2652.52
0.04%
2247.19
0.03%
3816.79
0.01%
9708.74
0.0%
33333.33
0.0%
142857.14
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.16% · Fair: 639.8
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 55.07% 44.93%
1.5 19.12% 80.88%
2.5 4.74% 95.26%
3.5 0.91% 99.09%
4.5 0.14% 99.86%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 13.81% 7.24
1 27.34% 3.66
2 27.06% 3.69
3 17.86% 5.60
4 8.84% 11.31
5+ 5.09% 19.66
Over 2.5 31.79% Under 2.5 68.21%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.87%
Draw 31.84%
Away Win 44.29%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 31.79%
Under 2.5 68.21%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 38.15%
No 61.85%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.82% 55.0 5.98% 16.71 92.2% 1.08
-1.5 7.8% 12.82 — 92.2% 1.08
-1.0 7.8% 12.82 17.15% 5.83 75.05% 1.33
-0.5 24.95% 4.01 — 75.05% 1.33
0 (PK) 24.95% 4.01 30.26% 3.3 44.79% 2.23
+0.5 55.21% 1.81 — 44.79% 2.23
+1.0 55.21% 1.81 25.29% 3.95 19.5% 5.13
+1.5 80.5% 1.24 — 19.5% 5.13
+2.0 80.5% 1.24 13.02% 7.68 6.48% 15.42

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.