Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
22.7%
Fair Odds 4.41
Draw
32.03%
Fair Odds 3.12
Away Win
45.27%
Fair Odds 2.21
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 16.96% Fair Odds 5.9

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.41 —
Draw 3.12 —
Away Win 2.21 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 16.96% 5.9
2 0-0 14.37% 6.96
3 1-1 12.89% 7.76
4 1-0 10.92% 9.16
5 0-2 10.0% 10.0
6 1-2 7.6% 13.15
7 2-1 4.9% 20.42
8 2-0 4.15% 24.1
9 0-3 3.94% 25.41
10 1-3 2.99% 33.44
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
14.37%
6.96
16.96%
5.9
10.0%
10.0
3.94%
25.41
1.16%
86.14
0.27%
364.96
1
10.92%
9.16
12.89%
7.76
7.6%
13.15
2.99%
33.44
0.88%
113.34
0.21%
480.31
2
4.15%
24.1
4.9%
20.42
2.89%
34.61
1.14%
87.99
0.34%
298.24
0.08%
1264.22
3
1.05%
95.11
1.24%
80.61
0.73%
136.61
0.29%
347.34
0.08%
1177.86
0.02%
5000.0
4
0.2%
500.5
0.24%
424.27
0.14%
718.91
0.05%
1828.15
0.02%
6211.18
0.0%
26315.79
5
0.03%
3289.47
0.04%
2793.3
0.02%
4739.34
0.01%
12048.19
0.0%
40000.0
0.0%
166666.67
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.15% · Fair: 658.76
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 53.23% 46.77%
1.5 17.69% 82.31%
2.5 4.18% 95.82%
3.5 0.76% 99.24%
4.5 0.11% 99.89%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 69.27% 30.73%
1.5 33.01% 66.99%
2.5 11.62% 88.38%
3.5 3.21% 96.79%
4.5 0.72% 99.28%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 14.37% 6.96
1 27.88% 3.59
2 27.04% 3.70
3 17.49% 5.72
4 8.48% 11.79
5+ 4.74% 21.10
Over 2.5 30.71% Under 2.5 69.29%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 22.70%
Draw 32.03%
Away Win 45.27%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 30.71%
Under 2.5 69.29%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 36.88%
No 63.12%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.59% 62.98 5.54% 18.06 92.87% 1.08
-1.5 7.13% 14.03 — 92.87% 1.08
-1.0 7.13% 14.03 16.61% 6.02 76.27% 1.31
-0.5 23.73% 4.21 — 76.27% 1.31
0 (PK) 23.73% 4.21 30.45% 3.28 45.81% 2.18
+0.5 54.19% 1.85 — 45.81% 2.18
+1.0 54.19% 1.85 25.79% 3.88 20.03% 4.99
+1.5 79.97% 1.25 — 20.03% 4.99
+2.0 79.97% 1.25 13.35% 7.49 6.68% 14.98

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.