Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
52.62%
Fair Odds 1.9
Draw
24.19%
Fair Odds 4.13
Away Win
23.2%
Fair Odds 4.31
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 10.56% Fair Odds 9.47

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.9 —
Draw 4.13 —
Away Win 4.31 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 10.56% 9.47
2 2-1 9.77% 10.23
3 1-0 9.03% 11.08
4 2-0 8.35% 11.97
5 1-2 6.18% 16.18
6 3-1 6.03% 16.6
7 2-2 5.72% 17.5
8 0-1 5.71% 17.51
9 3-0 5.15% 19.42
10 0-0 4.88% 20.49
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.88%
20.49
5.71%
17.51
3.34%
29.94
1.3%
76.76
0.38%
262.47
0.09%
1121.08
1
9.03%
11.08
10.56%
9.47
6.18%
16.18
2.41%
41.49
0.7%
141.86
0.16%
606.43
2
8.35%
11.97
9.77%
10.23
5.72%
17.5
2.23%
44.86
0.65%
153.37
0.15%
655.31
3
5.15%
19.42
6.03%
16.6
3.52%
28.37
1.37%
72.74
0.4%
248.69
0.09%
1062.7
4
2.38%
41.99
2.79%
35.88
1.63%
61.34
0.64%
157.28
0.19%
537.63
0.04%
2298.85
5
0.88%
113.47
1.03%
96.98
0.6%
165.78
0.24%
425.17
0.07%
1453.49
0.02%
6211.18
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.3% · Fair: 76.68
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 84.28% 15.72%
1.5 55.19% 44.81%
2.5 28.28% 71.72%
3.5 11.69% 88.31%
4.5 4.01% 95.99%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.96% 31.04%
1.5 32.65% 67.35%
2.5 11.41% 88.59%
3.5 3.12% 96.88%
4.5 0.7% 99.3%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.88% 20.49
1 14.74% 6.79
2 22.25% 4.49
3 22.40% 4.46
4 16.91% 5.91
5+ 18.81% 5.32
Over 2.5 58.13% Under 2.5 41.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 52.62%
Draw 24.19%
Away Win 23.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 58.13%
Under 2.5 41.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.12%
No 41.88%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 13.98% 7.15 16.26% 6.15 69.76% 1.43
-1.5 30.24% 3.31 — 69.76% 1.43
-1.0 30.24% 3.31 23.03% 4.34 46.72% 2.14
-0.5 53.28% 1.88 — 46.72% 2.14
0 (PK) 53.28% 1.88 22.74% 4.4 23.99% 4.17
+0.5 76.01% 1.32 — 23.99% 4.17
+1.0 76.01% 1.32 14.57% 6.86 9.42% 10.62
+1.5 90.58% 1.1 — 9.42% 10.62
+2.0 90.58% 1.1 6.51% 15.37 2.91% 34.32

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.