Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.89%
Fair Odds 2.23
Draw
26.93%
Fair Odds 3.71
Away Win
28.18%
Fair Odds 3.55
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.07% Fair Odds 8.28

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.23 —
Draw 3.71 —
Away Win 3.55 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.07% 8.28
2 1-0 10.32% 9.69
3 2-1 9.17% 10.9
4 0-1 7.94% 12.59
5 2-0 7.84% 12.75
6 1-2 7.06% 14.16
7 0-0 6.79% 14.73
8 2-2 5.37% 18.63
9 3-1 4.65% 21.51
10 0-2 4.65% 21.52
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
7.94%
12.59
4.65%
21.52
1.81%
55.19
0.53%
188.68
0.12%
806.45
1
10.32%
9.69
12.07%
8.28
7.06%
14.16
2.75%
36.31
0.81%
124.13
0.19%
530.5
2
7.84%
12.75
9.17%
10.9
5.37%
18.63
2.09%
47.77
0.61%
163.32
0.14%
697.84
3
3.97%
25.17
4.65%
21.51
2.72%
36.77
1.06%
94.29
0.31%
322.37
0.07%
1377.41
4
1.51%
66.23
1.77%
56.61
1.03%
96.77
0.4%
248.14
0.12%
848.18
0.03%
3623.19
5
0.46%
217.86
0.54%
186.22
0.31%
318.37
0.12%
816.33
0.04%
2793.3
0.01%
11904.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.61% · Fair: 165.07
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.96% 31.04%
1.5 32.65% 67.35%
2.5 11.41% 88.59%
3.5 3.12% 96.88%
4.5 0.7% 99.3%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.89%
Draw 26.93%
Away Win 28.18%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.88%
No 46.12%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.02% 11.08 13.66% 7.32 77.32% 1.29
-1.5 22.68% 4.41 — 77.32% 1.29
-1.0 22.68% 4.41 22.65% 4.41 54.67% 1.83
-0.5 45.33% 2.21 — 54.67% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.33% 2.21 25.41% 3.93 29.26% 3.42
+0.5 70.74% 1.41 — 29.26% 3.42
+1.0 70.74% 1.41 17.44% 5.73 11.82% 8.46
+1.5 88.18% 1.13 — 11.82% 8.46
+2.0 88.18% 1.13 8.09% 12.36 3.73% 26.83

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.