Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.65%
Fair Odds 2.34
Draw
27.66%
Fair Odds 3.62
Away Win
29.7%
Fair Odds 3.37
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.43% Fair Odds 8.05

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.34 —
Draw 3.62 —
Away Win 3.37 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.43% 8.05
2 1-0 10.62% 9.42
3 2-1 8.89% 11.25
4 0-1 8.69% 11.51
5 2-0 7.59% 13.17
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 7.27% 13.76
8 2-2 5.2% 19.24
9 0-2 5.08% 19.67
10 3-1 4.24% 23.61
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.69%
11.51
5.08%
19.67
1.98%
50.44
0.58%
172.44
0.14%
736.92
1
10.62%
9.42
12.43%
8.05
7.27%
13.76
2.84%
35.27
0.83%
120.58
0.19%
515.2
2
7.59%
13.17
8.89%
11.25
5.2%
19.24
2.03%
49.33
0.59%
168.66
0.14%
720.98
3
3.62%
27.63
4.24%
23.61
2.48%
40.36
0.97%
103.49
0.28%
353.86
0.07%
1512.86
4
1.29%
77.27
1.51%
66.05
0.89%
112.91
0.35%
289.52
0.1%
990.1
0.02%
4237.29
5
0.37%
270.2
0.43%
230.95
0.25%
394.79
0.1%
1012.15
0.03%
3460.21
0.01%
14705.88
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.49% · Fair: 205.55
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.07% 23.93%
1.5 41.85% 58.15%
2.5 17.38% 82.62%
3.5 5.72% 94.28%
4.5 1.55% 98.45%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.96% 31.04%
1.5 32.65% 67.35%
2.5 11.41% 88.59%
3.5 3.12% 96.88%
4.5 0.7% 99.3%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.65%
Draw 27.66%
Away Win 29.70%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.46%
No 47.54%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.83% 12.77 12.82% 7.8 79.35% 1.26
-1.5 20.65% 4.84 — 79.35% 1.26
-1.0 20.65% 4.84 22.36% 4.47 56.99% 1.75
-0.5 43.01% 2.33 — 56.99% 1.75
0 (PK) 43.01% 2.33 26.13% 3.83 30.86% 3.24
+0.5 69.14% 1.45 — 30.86% 3.24
+1.0 69.14% 1.45 18.29% 5.47 12.57% 7.96
+1.5 87.43% 1.14 — 12.57% 7.96
+2.0 87.43% 1.14 8.58% 11.65 3.99% 25.09

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.