Football Poisson Calculator
xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine
INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.13%
Fair Odds
3.02
Draw
30.0%
Fair Odds
3.33
Away Win
36.87%
Fair Odds
2.71
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.27%
Fair Odds 7.54
Match odds & output
FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
| Market | Market Odds | Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. | Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Win | 3.02 | — | |
| Draw | 3.33 | — | |
| Away Win | 2.71 | — |
Find Value Opportunities
Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.
See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
| # | Correct Score | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1-1 | 13.27% | 7.54 |
| 2 | 0-1 | 11.85% | 8.44 |
| 3 | 1-0 | 11.34% | 8.82 |
| 4 | 0-0 | 10.13% | 9.87 |
| 5 | 1-2 | 7.76% | 12.88 |
| 6 | 2-1 | 7.43% | 13.46 |
| 7 | 0-2 | 6.93% | 14.43 |
| 8 | 2-0 | 6.35% | 15.74 |
| 9 | 2-2 | 4.35% | 23.0 |
| 10 | 1-3 | 3.03% | 33.03 |
SCORE MATRIX
Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 |
10.13%
9.87
|
11.85%
8.44
|
6.93%
14.43
|
2.7%
36.99
|
0.79%
126.47
|
0.18%
540.54
|
| 1 |
11.34%
8.82
|
13.27%
7.54
|
7.76%
12.88
|
3.03%
33.03
|
0.89%
112.92
|
0.21%
482.63
|
| 2 |
6.35%
15.74
|
7.43%
13.46
|
4.35%
23.0
|
1.7%
58.98
|
0.5%
201.65
|
0.12%
862.07
|
| 3 |
2.37%
42.17
|
2.77%
36.05
|
1.62%
61.61
|
0.63%
157.98
|
0.19%
540.25
|
0.04%
2309.47
|
| 4 |
0.66%
150.63
|
0.78%
128.73
|
0.45%
220.07
|
0.18%
564.33
|
0.05%
1930.5
|
0.01%
8264.46
|
| 5 |
0.15%
672.49
|
0.17%
574.71
|
0.1%
982.32
|
0.04%
2518.89
|
0.01%
8620.69
|
0.0%
37037.04
|
Any other score (6+ goals either side)
0.24%
·
Fair:
419.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 67.37% | 32.63% |
| 1.5 | 30.83% | 69.17% |
| 2.5 | 10.36% | 89.64% |
| 3.5 | 2.72% | 97.28% |
| 4.5 | 0.59% | 99.41% |
Away Team
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 68.96% | 31.04% |
| 1.5 | 32.65% | 67.35% |
| 2.5 | 11.41% | 88.59% |
| 3.5 | 3.12% | 96.88% |
| 4.5 | 0.7% | 99.3% |
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
| Goals | Prob | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.13% | 9.87 |
| 1 | 23.19% | 4.31 |
| 2 | 26.55% | 3.77 |
| 3 | 20.27% | 4.93 |
| 4 | 11.60% | 8.62 |
| 5+ | 8.26% | 12.11 |
|
Over 2.5 40.13%
Under 2.5 59.87%
|
||
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win
33.13%
Draw
30.00%
Away Win
36.87%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.13%
Under 2.5
59.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes
46.46%
No
53.54%
Asian Handicap Probability
?
Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model.
Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines.
Home Handicap
| Line | Home Side | Push | Away Side |
|---|---|---|---|
| -2.0 | 4.34% 23.04 | 9.62% 10.39 | 86.04% 1.16 |
| -1.5 | 13.96% 7.16 | — | 86.04% 1.16 |
| -1.0 | 13.96% 7.16 | 20.59% 4.86 | 65.45% 1.53 |
| -0.5 | 34.55% 2.89 | — | 65.45% 1.53 |
| 0 (PK) | 34.55% 2.89 | 28.43% 3.52 | 37.02% 2.7 |
| +0.5 | 62.98% 1.59 | — | 37.02% 2.7 |
| +1.0 | 62.98% 1.59 | 21.5% 4.65 | 15.52% 6.44 |
| +1.5 | 84.48% 1.18 | — | 15.52% 6.44 |
| +2.0 | 84.48% 1.18 | 10.5% 9.52 | 5.02% 19.93 |
HOW THE MODEL WORKS
Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output
All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).
Limits of the Poisson model
Strong model, with caveats:
- Independent goals = simplifying assumption
- Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
- Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
SHARE THIS TOOL
How to use the Poisson calculator
- Enter the home xG
- Enter the away xG
- Click Calculate (or use live update)
- Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions
For anyone doing data-led football work.
Why Poisson helps xG models
xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.
Benefits such as
- Less noise from finishing luck
- Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
- Fair-odds from clean probabilities
- Spot model vs book value
Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.
Frequently asked questions (FAQ)
It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.
Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.
Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).
Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source
Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.
Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.
