Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
58.37%
Fair Odds 1.71
Draw
21.99%
Fair Odds 4.55
Away Win
19.65%
Fair Odds 5.09
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.81% Fair Odds 10.19

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.71 —
Draw 4.55 —
Away Win 5.09 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.81% 10.19
2 1-1 9.3% 10.75
3 2-0 8.46% 11.82
4 1-0 8.02% 12.47
5 3-1 6.9% 14.49
6 3-0 5.95% 16.81
7 2-2 5.69% 17.57
8 1-2 5.4% 18.53
9 0-1 4.41% 22.68
10 3-2 4.0% 24.98
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.8%
26.31
4.41%
22.68
2.56%
39.11
0.99%
101.14
0.29%
348.8
0.07%
1503.76
1
8.02%
12.47
9.3%
10.75
5.4%
18.53
2.09%
47.93
0.6%
165.29
0.14%
712.25
2
8.46%
11.82
9.81%
10.19
5.69%
17.57
2.2%
45.43
0.64%
156.67
0.15%
675.22
3
5.95%
16.81
6.9%
14.49
4.0%
24.98
1.55%
64.6
0.45%
222.77
0.1%
959.69
4
3.14%
31.86
3.64%
27.46
2.11%
47.35
0.82%
122.46
0.24%
422.3
0.05%
1821.49
5
1.32%
75.49
1.54%
65.08
0.89%
112.21
0.34%
290.19
0.1%
1001.0
0.02%
4310.34
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.21% · Fair: 45.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 87.87% 12.12%
1.5 62.29% 37.71%
2.5 35.31% 64.69%
3.5 16.32% 83.67%
4.5 6.31% 93.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.65% 31.35%
1.5 32.29% 67.71%
2.5 11.2% 88.8%
3.5 3.04% 96.96%
4.5 0.68% 99.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.80% 26.31
1 12.43% 8.05
2 20.32% 4.92
3 22.15% 4.51
4 18.11% 5.52
5+ 23.19% 4.31
Over 2.5 63.45% Under 2.5 36.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 58.37%
Draw 21.99%
Away Win 19.65%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.45%
Under 2.5 36.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.33%
No 39.67%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 18.52% 5.4 17.86% 5.6 63.62% 1.57
-1.5 36.38% 2.75 — 63.62% 1.57
-1.0 36.38% 2.75 22.76% 4.39 40.86% 2.45
-0.5 59.14% 1.69 — 40.86% 2.45
0 (PK) 59.14% 1.69 20.6% 4.85 20.25% 4.94
+0.5 79.74% 1.25 — 20.25% 4.94
+1.0 79.74% 1.25 12.51% 7.99 7.74% 12.92
+1.5 92.26% 1.08 — 7.74% 12.92
+2.0 92.26% 1.08 5.4% 18.53 2.34% 42.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.