Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.72%
Fair Odds 2.05
Draw
25.71%
Fair Odds 3.89
Away Win
25.57%
Fair Odds 3.91
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.43% Fair Odds 8.75

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.05 —
Draw 3.89 —
Away Win 3.91 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.43% 8.75
2 1-0 9.86% 10.15
3 2-1 9.55% 10.48
4 2-0 8.23% 12.15
5 0-1 6.85% 14.61
6 1-2 6.63% 15.08
7 0-0 5.9% 16.95
8 2-2 5.54% 18.06
9 3-1 5.31% 18.82
10 3-0 4.58% 21.83
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.9%
16.95
6.85%
14.61
3.97%
25.19
1.54%
65.14
0.45%
224.62
0.1%
968.05
1
9.86%
10.15
11.43%
8.75
6.63%
15.08
2.56%
39.0
0.74%
134.5
0.17%
579.71
2
8.23%
12.15
9.55%
10.48
5.54%
18.06
2.14%
46.71
0.62%
161.08
0.14%
694.44
3
4.58%
21.83
5.31%
18.82
3.08%
32.45
1.19%
83.91
0.35%
289.35
0.08%
1246.88
4
1.91%
52.29
2.22%
45.08
1.29%
77.72
0.5%
201.01
0.14%
693.0
0.03%
2985.07
5
0.64%
156.54
0.74%
134.95
0.43%
232.67
0.17%
601.68
0.05%
2074.69
0.01%
8928.57
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.86% · Fair: 115.97
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.18% 18.82%
1.5 49.74% 50.26%
2.5 23.49% 76.51%
3.5 8.88% 91.12%
4.5 2.77% 97.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.65% 31.35%
1.5 32.29% 67.71%
2.5 11.2% 88.8%
3.5 3.04% 96.96%
4.5 0.68% 99.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.90% 16.95
1 16.70% 5.99
2 23.63% 4.23
3 22.29% 4.49
4 15.77% 6.34
5+ 15.70% 6.37
Over 2.5 53.77% Under 2.5 46.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.72%
Draw 25.71%
Away Win 25.57%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.77%
Under 2.5 46.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.73%
No 44.27%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 11.24% 8.9 15.01% 6.66 73.75% 1.36
-1.5 26.25% 3.81 — 73.75% 1.36
-1.0 26.25% 3.81 23.03% 4.34 50.72% 1.97
-0.5 49.28% 2.03 — 50.72% 1.97
0 (PK) 49.28% 2.03 24.22% 4.13 26.5% 3.77
+0.5 73.5% 1.36 — 26.5% 3.77
+1.0 73.5% 1.36 16.0% 6.25 10.5% 9.52
+1.5 89.5% 1.12 — 10.5% 9.52
+2.0 89.5% 1.12 7.24% 13.81 3.26% 30.67

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.