Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.84%
Fair Odds 2.18
Draw
26.71%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
27.45%
Fair Odds 3.64
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.96% Fair Odds 8.36

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.18 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 3.64 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.96% 8.36
2 1-0 10.31% 9.7
3 2-1 9.27% 10.79
4 2-0 7.99% 12.51
5 0-1 7.72% 12.96
6 1-2 6.94% 14.41
7 0-0 6.65% 15.03
8 2-2 5.38% 18.6
9 3-1 4.79% 20.88
10 0-2 4.48% 22.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.65%
15.03
7.72%
12.96
4.48%
22.34
1.73%
57.77
0.5%
199.2
0.12%
858.37
1
10.31%
9.7
11.96%
8.36
6.94%
14.41
2.68%
37.27
0.78%
128.52
0.18%
554.02
2
7.99%
12.51
9.27%
10.79
5.38%
18.6
2.08%
48.09
0.6%
165.84
0.14%
714.8
3
4.13%
24.22
4.79%
20.88
2.78%
35.99
1.07%
93.08
0.31%
321.03
0.07%
1383.13
4
1.6%
62.49
1.86%
53.87
1.08%
92.89
0.42%
240.21
0.12%
828.5
0.03%
3571.43
5
0.5%
201.57
0.58%
173.79
0.33%
299.58
0.13%
774.59
0.04%
2673.8
0.01%
11494.25
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.65% · Fair: 154.75
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.65% 31.35%
1.5 32.29% 67.71%
2.5 11.2% 88.8%
3.5 3.04% 96.96%
4.5 0.68% 99.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.65% 15.03
1 18.03% 5.55
2 24.43% 4.09
3 22.07% 4.53
4 14.95% 6.69
5+ 13.86% 7.22
Over 2.5 50.88% Under 2.5 49.12%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.84%
Draw 26.71%
Away Win 27.45%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.88%
Under 2.5 49.12%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.08%
No 45.92%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.5% 10.53 14.0% 7.14 76.5% 1.31
-1.5 23.5% 4.26 — 76.5% 1.31
-1.0 23.5% 4.26 22.82% 4.38 53.68% 1.86
-0.5 46.32% 2.16 — 53.68% 1.86
0 (PK) 46.32% 2.16 25.2% 3.97 28.48% 3.51
+0.5 71.52% 1.4 — 28.48% 3.51
+1.0 71.52% 1.4 17.08% 5.86 11.41% 8.77
+1.5 88.59% 1.13 — 11.41% 8.77
+2.0 88.59% 1.13 7.84% 12.75 3.57% 28.04

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.