Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
32.22%
Fair Odds 3.1
Draw
30.36%
Fair Odds 3.29
Away Win
37.43%
Fair Odds 2.67
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.34% Fair Odds 7.5

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.1 —
Draw 3.29 —
Away Win 2.67 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.34% 7.5
2 0-1 12.35% 8.1
3 1-0 11.5% 8.7
4 0-0 10.65% 9.39
5 1-2 7.74% 12.93
6 2-1 7.2% 13.89
7 0-2 7.16% 13.96
8 2-0 6.21% 16.11
9 2-2 4.18% 23.94
10 1-3 2.99% 33.43
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.65%
9.39
12.35%
8.1
7.16%
13.96
2.77%
36.11
0.8%
124.5
0.19%
536.77
1
11.5%
8.7
13.34%
7.5
7.74%
12.93
2.99%
33.43
0.87%
115.29
0.2%
497.02
2
6.21%
16.11
7.2%
13.89
4.18%
23.94
1.62%
61.91
0.47%
213.49
0.11%
919.96
3
2.24%
44.74
2.59%
38.57
1.5%
66.5
0.58%
171.97
0.17%
593.12
0.04%
2557.54
4
0.6%
165.7
0.7%
142.86
0.41%
246.31
0.16%
636.94
0.05%
2197.8
0.01%
9433.96
5
0.13%
766.87
0.15%
661.38
0.09%
1140.25
0.03%
2949.85
0.01%
10204.08
0.0%
43478.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.21% · Fair: 465.77
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 66.04% 33.96%
1.5 29.36% 70.64%
2.5 9.56% 90.44%
3.5 2.43% 97.57%
4.5 0.5% 99.5%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.65% 31.35%
1.5 32.29% 67.71%
2.5 11.2% 88.8%
3.5 3.04% 96.96%
4.5 0.68% 99.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.65% 9.39
1 23.85% 4.19
2 26.71% 3.74
3 19.94% 5.01
4 11.17% 8.95
5+ 7.69% 13.01
Over 2.5 38.8% Under 2.5 61.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 32.22%
Draw 30.36%
Away Win 37.43%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.34%
No 54.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.99% 25.04 9.24% 10.82 86.76% 1.15
-1.5 13.24% 7.55 — 86.76% 1.15
-1.0 13.24% 7.55 20.37% 4.91 66.39% 1.51
-0.5 33.61% 2.98 — 66.39% 1.51
0 (PK) 33.61% 2.98 28.79% 3.47 37.6% 2.66
+0.5 62.4% 1.6 — 37.6% 2.66
+1.0 62.4% 1.6 21.88% 4.57 15.72% 6.36
+1.5 84.28% 1.19 — 15.72% 6.36
+2.0 84.28% 1.19 10.66% 9.38 5.06% 19.76

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.