Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
29.68%
Fair Odds 3.37
Draw
30.97%
Fair Odds 3.23
Away Win
39.35%
Fair Odds 2.54
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 13.51% Fair Odds 7.4

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.37 —
Draw 3.23 —
Away Win 2.54 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 13.51% 7.4
2 1-1 13.38% 7.48
3 0-0 11.65% 8.58
4 1-0 11.53% 8.67
5 0-2 7.84% 12.76
6 1-2 7.76% 12.89
7 2-1 6.62% 15.1
8 2-0 5.71% 17.52
9 2-2 3.84% 26.04
10 0-3 3.03% 33.0
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.65%
8.58
13.51%
7.4
7.84%
12.76
3.03%
33.0
0.88%
113.79
0.2%
490.44
1
11.53%
8.67
13.38%
7.48
7.76%
12.89
3.0%
33.33
0.87%
114.94
0.2%
495.54
2
5.71%
17.52
6.62%
15.1
3.84%
26.04
1.49%
67.34
0.43%
232.18
0.1%
1001.0
3
1.88%
53.09
2.19%
45.76
1.27%
78.9
0.49%
204.04
0.14%
703.73
0.03%
3030.3
4
0.47%
214.5
0.54%
184.91
0.31%
318.78
0.12%
824.4
0.04%
2840.91
0.01%
12195.12
5
0.09%
1083.42
0.11%
933.71
0.06%
1610.31
0.02%
4166.67
0.01%
14285.71
0.0%
62500.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.18% · Fair: 546.45
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 62.84% 37.16%
1.5 26.06% 73.94%
2.5 7.85% 92.15%
3.5 1.84% 98.16%
4.5 0.35% 99.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.65% 31.35%
1.5 32.29% 67.71%
2.5 11.2% 88.8%
3.5 3.04% 96.96%
4.5 0.68% 99.32%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.65% 8.58
1 25.04% 3.99
2 26.92% 3.71
3 19.29% 5.18
4 10.37% 9.64
5+ 6.72% 14.88
Over 2.5 36.39% Under 2.5 63.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 29.68%
Draw 30.97%
Away Win 39.35%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 36.39%
Under 2.5 63.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 43.14%
No 56.86%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.21% 31.18 8.23% 12.15 88.56% 1.13
-1.5 11.44% 8.74 — 88.56% 1.13
-1.0 11.44% 8.74 19.55% 5.12 69.01% 1.45
-0.5 30.99% 3.23 — 69.01% 1.45
0 (PK) 30.99% 3.23 29.39% 3.4 39.62% 2.52
+0.5 60.38% 1.66 — 39.62% 2.52
+1.0 60.38% 1.66 22.91% 4.37 16.71% 5.98
+1.5 83.29% 1.2 — 16.71% 5.98
+2.0 83.29% 1.2 11.3% 8.85 5.41% 18.49

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.