Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
58.79%
Fair Odds 1.7
Draw
21.88%
Fair Odds 4.57
Away Win
19.33%
Fair Odds 5.17
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.82% Fair Odds 10.18

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.7 —
Draw 4.57 —
Away Win 5.17 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.82% 10.18
2 1-1 9.27% 10.79
3 2-0 8.54% 11.71
4 1-0 8.06% 12.41
5 3-1 6.94% 14.41
6 3-0 6.04% 16.57
7 2-2 5.65% 17.71
8 1-2 5.33% 18.77
9 0-1 4.37% 22.88
10 3-2 3.99% 25.06
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
3.8%
26.31
4.37%
22.88
2.51%
39.79
0.96%
103.8
0.28%
361.01
0.06%
1569.86
1
8.06%
12.41
9.27%
10.79
5.33%
18.77
2.04%
48.96
0.59%
170.3
0.14%
740.19
2
8.54%
11.71
9.82%
10.18
5.65%
17.71
2.16%
46.19
0.62%
160.67
0.14%
698.32
3
6.04%
16.57
6.94%
14.41
3.99%
25.06
1.53%
65.36
0.44%
227.38
0.1%
988.14
4
3.2%
31.26
3.68%
27.18
2.12%
47.28
0.81%
123.33
0.23%
429.0
0.05%
1865.67
5
1.36%
73.73
1.56%
64.11
0.9%
111.5
0.34%
290.87
0.1%
1012.15
0.02%
4405.29
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 2.25% · Fair: 44.51
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 88.0% 12.0%
1.5 62.55% 37.45%
2.5 35.58% 64.42%
3.5 16.51% 83.48%
4.5 6.41% 93.59%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 3.80% 26.31
1 12.43% 8.05
2 20.32% 4.92
3 22.15% 4.51
4 18.11% 5.52
5+ 23.19% 4.31
Over 2.5 63.45% Under 2.5 36.55%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 58.79%
Draw 21.88%
Away Win 19.33%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 63.45%
Under 2.5 36.55%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 60.13%
No 39.87%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 18.81% 5.32 17.98% 5.56 63.21% 1.58
-1.5 36.78% 2.72 — 63.21% 1.58
-1.0 36.78% 2.72 22.79% 4.39 40.43% 2.47
-0.5 59.57% 1.68 — 40.43% 2.47
0 (PK) 59.57% 1.68 20.5% 4.88 19.92% 5.02
+0.5 80.07% 1.25 — 19.92% 5.02
+1.0 80.07% 1.25 12.36% 8.09 7.56% 13.22
+1.5 92.44% 1.08 — 7.56% 13.22
+2.0 92.44% 1.08 5.29% 18.9 2.27% 44.0

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.