Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
43.58%
Fair Odds 2.29
Draw
27.57%
Fair Odds 3.63
Away Win
28.85%
Fair Odds 3.47
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.39% Fair Odds 8.07

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.29 —
Draw 3.63 —
Away Win 3.47 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.39% 8.07
2 1-0 10.77% 9.29
3 2-1 8.98% 11.14
4 0-1 8.54% 11.71
5 2-0 7.81% 12.81
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 7.12% 14.04
8 2-2 5.16% 19.37
9 0-2 4.91% 20.36
10 3-1 4.34% 23.04
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.54%
11.71
4.91%
20.36
1.88%
53.12
0.54%
184.74
0.12%
803.21
1
10.77%
9.29
12.39%
8.07
7.12%
14.04
2.73%
36.63
0.78%
127.42
0.18%
554.02
2
7.81%
12.81
8.98%
11.14
5.16%
19.37
1.98%
50.53
0.57%
175.75
0.13%
763.94
3
3.77%
26.5
4.34%
23.04
2.5%
40.07
0.96%
104.54
0.27%
363.64
0.06%
1579.78
4
1.37%
73.1
1.57%
63.56
0.9%
110.55
0.35%
288.35
0.1%
1003.01
0.02%
4366.81
5
0.4%
252.08
0.46%
219.2
0.26%
381.24
0.1%
994.04
0.03%
3460.21
0.01%
15151.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.5% · Fair: 200.08
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.54% 23.46%
1.5 42.53% 57.47%
2.5 17.87% 82.13%
3.5 5.95% 94.05%
4.5 1.63% 98.37%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 43.58%
Draw 27.57%
Away Win 28.85%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.31%
No 47.69%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.2% 12.2 13.16% 7.6 78.64% 1.27
-1.5 21.36% 4.68 — 78.64% 1.27
-1.0 21.36% 4.68 22.62% 4.42 56.02% 1.79
-0.5 43.98% 2.27 — 56.02% 1.79
0 (PK) 43.98% 2.27 26.04% 3.84 29.98% 3.34
+0.5 70.02% 1.43 — 29.98% 3.34
+1.0 70.02% 1.43 17.94% 5.57 12.04% 8.31
+1.5 87.96% 1.14 — 12.04% 8.31
+2.0 87.96% 1.14 8.28% 12.08 3.76% 26.6

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.