Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.54%
Fair Odds 2.41
Draw
28.22%
Fair Odds 3.54
Away Win
30.24%
Fair Odds 3.31
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.68% Fair Odds 7.89

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.41 —
Draw 3.54 —
Away Win 3.31 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.68% 7.89
2 1-0 11.02% 9.07
3 0-1 9.25% 10.81
4 2-1 8.68% 11.52
5 0-0 8.05% 12.43
6 2-0 7.55% 13.24
7 1-2 7.29% 13.72
8 0-2 5.32% 18.8
9 2-2 4.99% 20.03
10 3-1 3.97% 25.22
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.05%
12.43
9.25%
10.81
5.32%
18.8
2.04%
49.03
0.59%
170.53
0.13%
741.29
1
11.02%
9.07
12.68%
7.89
7.29%
13.72
2.79%
35.79
0.8%
124.49
0.18%
541.13
2
7.55%
13.24
8.68%
11.52
4.99%
20.03
1.91%
52.25
0.55%
181.72
0.13%
789.89
3
3.45%
29.0
3.97%
25.22
2.28%
43.86
0.87%
114.42
0.25%
397.93
0.06%
1730.1
4
1.18%
84.67
1.36%
73.63
0.78%
128.06
0.3%
334.0
0.09%
1161.44
0.02%
5050.51
5
0.32%
309.02
0.37%
268.74
0.21%
467.29
0.08%
1219.51
0.02%
4237.29
0.01%
18518.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.41% · Fair: 244.62
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.59% 25.41%
1.5 39.78% 60.22%
2.5 15.93% 84.07%
3.5 5.04% 94.96%
4.5 1.31% 98.69%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.05% 12.43
1 20.28% 4.93
2 25.55% 3.91
3 21.46% 4.66
4 13.52% 7.40
5+ 11.15% 8.97
Over 2.5 46.13% Under 2.5 53.87%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.54%
Draw 28.22%
Away Win 30.24%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.13%
Under 2.5 53.87%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.97%
No 49.03%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.18% 13.93 12.38% 8.07 80.44% 1.24
-1.5 19.56% 5.11 — 80.44% 1.24
-1.0 19.56% 5.11 22.31% 4.48 58.13% 1.72
-0.5 41.87% 2.39 — 58.13% 1.72
0 (PK) 41.87% 2.39 26.68% 3.75 31.45% 3.18
+0.5 68.55% 1.46 — 31.45% 3.18
+1.0 68.55% 1.46 18.73% 5.34 12.72% 7.86
+1.5 87.28% 1.15 — 12.72% 7.86
+2.0 87.28% 1.15 8.73% 11.46 3.99% 25.06

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.