Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
39.2%
Fair Odds 2.55
Draw
28.94%
Fair Odds 3.46
Away Win
31.86%
Fair Odds 3.14
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.96% Fair Odds 7.72

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.55 —
Draw 3.46 —
Away Win 3.14 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.96% 7.72
2 1-0 11.27% 8.87
3 0-1 10.12% 9.88
4 0-0 8.8% 11.36
5 2-1 8.29% 12.06
6 1-2 7.45% 13.42
7 2-0 7.21% 13.87
8 0-2 5.82% 17.18
9 2-2 4.77% 20.97
10 3-1 3.54% 28.26
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.8%
11.36
10.12%
9.88
5.82%
17.18
2.23%
44.81
0.64%
155.86
0.15%
677.51
1
11.27%
8.87
12.96%
7.72
7.45%
13.42
2.86%
35.01
0.82%
121.77
0.19%
529.38
2
7.21%
13.87
8.29%
12.06
4.77%
20.97
1.83%
54.7
0.53%
190.26
0.12%
827.13
3
3.08%
32.5
3.54%
28.26
2.03%
49.15
0.78%
128.21
0.22%
446.03
0.05%
1937.98
4
0.98%
101.55
1.13%
88.31
0.65%
153.59
0.25%
400.64
0.07%
1392.76
0.02%
6060.61
5
0.25%
396.67
0.29%
344.95
0.17%
599.88
0.06%
1564.95
0.02%
5434.78
0.0%
23809.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.33% · Fair: 305.44
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 72.2% 27.8%
1.5 36.61% 63.39%
2.5 13.83% 86.17%
3.5 4.11% 95.89%
4.5 1.0% 99.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.80% 11.36
1 21.39% 4.67
2 25.99% 3.85
3 21.05% 4.75
4 12.79% 7.82
5+ 9.97% 10.03
Over 2.5 43.81% Under 2.5 56.19%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 39.20%
Draw 28.94%
Away Win 31.86%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 43.81%
Under 2.5 56.19%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 49.34%
No 50.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.1% 16.38 11.47% 8.72 82.43% 1.21
-1.5 17.57% 5.69 — 82.43% 1.21
-1.0 17.57% 5.69 21.87% 4.57 60.56% 1.65
-0.5 39.44% 2.54 — 60.56% 1.65
0 (PK) 39.44% 2.54 27.39% 3.65 33.17% 3.01
+0.5 66.83% 1.5 — 33.17% 3.01
+1.0 66.83% 1.5 19.65% 5.09 13.53% 7.39
+1.5 86.47% 1.16 — 13.53% 7.39
+2.0 86.47% 1.16 9.26% 10.8 4.27% 23.43

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.