Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.52%
Fair Odds 2.98
Draw
30.15%
Fair Odds 3.32
Away Win
36.32%
Fair Odds 2.75
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.31% Fair Odds 7.52

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.98 —
Draw 3.32 —
Away Win 2.75 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.31% 7.52
2 0-1 11.88% 8.42
3 1-0 11.57% 8.64
4 0-0 10.33% 9.68
5 1-2 7.65% 13.07
6 2-1 7.45% 13.42
7 0-2 6.83% 14.64
8 2-0 6.48% 15.43
9 2-2 4.28% 23.34
10 1-3 2.93% 34.09
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.33%
9.68
11.88%
8.42
6.83%
14.64
2.62%
38.19
0.75%
132.82
0.17%
577.37
1
11.57%
8.64
13.31%
7.52
7.65%
13.07
2.93%
34.09
0.84%
118.6
0.19%
515.73
2
6.48%
15.43
7.45%
13.42
4.28%
23.34
1.64%
60.88
0.47%
211.77
0.11%
920.81
3
2.42%
41.34
2.78%
35.95
1.6%
62.52
0.61%
163.08
0.18%
567.21
0.04%
2469.14
4
0.68%
147.65
0.78%
128.37
0.45%
223.26
0.17%
582.41
0.05%
2024.29
0.01%
8771.93
5
0.15%
659.2
0.17%
573.07
0.1%
997.01
0.04%
2597.4
0.01%
9009.01
0.0%
40000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.23% · Fair: 440.14
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.33% 9.68
1 23.45% 4.26
2 26.62% 3.76
3 20.14% 4.97
4 11.43% 8.75
5+ 8.03% 12.46
Over 2.5 39.6% Under 2.5 60.4%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.52%
Draw 30.15%
Away Win 36.32%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 39.6%
Under 2.5 60.4%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.04%
No 53.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.41% 22.7 9.75% 10.26 85.84% 1.16
-1.5 14.16% 7.06 — 85.84% 1.16
-1.0 14.16% 7.06 20.81% 4.81 65.04% 1.54
-0.5 34.96% 2.86 — 65.04% 1.54
0 (PK) 34.96% 2.86 28.59% 3.5 36.45% 2.74
+0.5 63.55% 1.57 — 36.45% 2.74
+1.0 63.55% 1.57 21.36% 4.68 15.09% 6.63
+1.5 84.91% 1.18 — 15.09% 6.63
+2.0 84.91% 1.18 10.28% 9.73 4.81% 20.79

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.