Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
31.57%
Fair Odds 3.17
Draw
30.65%
Fair Odds 3.26
Away Win
37.78%
Fair Odds 2.65
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.38% Fair Odds 7.47

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 3.17 —
Draw 3.26 —
Away Win 2.65 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.38% 7.47
2 0-1 12.74% 7.85
3 1-0 11.63% 8.6
4 0-0 11.08% 9.03
5 1-2 7.69% 13.0
6 0-2 7.33% 13.65
7 2-1 7.02% 14.24
8 2-0 6.11% 16.37
9 2-2 4.04% 24.76
10 1-3 2.95% 33.91
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
11.08%
9.03
12.74%
7.85
7.33%
13.65
2.81%
35.6
0.81%
123.84
0.19%
538.5
1
11.63%
8.6
13.38%
7.47
7.69%
13.0
2.95%
33.91
0.85%
117.94
0.19%
512.82
2
6.11%
16.37
7.02%
14.24
4.04%
24.76
1.55%
64.59
0.45%
224.67
0.1%
976.56
3
2.14%
46.78
2.46%
40.68
1.41%
70.74
0.54%
184.54
0.16%
641.85
0.04%
2793.3
4
0.56%
178.19
0.65%
154.94
0.37%
269.47
0.14%
703.23
0.04%
2444.99
0.01%
10638.3
5
0.12%
848.9
0.14%
738.01
0.08%
1283.7
0.03%
3344.48
0.01%
11627.91
0.0%
50000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.2% · Fair: 506.59
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 65.01% 34.99%
1.5 28.26% 71.74%
2.5 8.97% 91.03%
3.5 2.22% 97.78%
4.5 0.45% 99.55%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.34% 31.66%
1.5 31.92% 68.08%
2.5 10.99% 89.01%
3.5 2.96% 97.04%
4.5 0.65% 99.35%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 11.08% 9.03
1 24.38% 4.10
2 26.81% 3.73
3 19.66% 5.09
4 10.82% 9.25
5+ 7.25% 13.79
Over 2.5 37.73% Under 2.5 62.27%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 31.57%
Draw 30.65%
Away Win 37.78%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 37.73%
Under 2.5 62.27%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 44.42%
No 55.58%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 3.75% 26.67 8.97% 11.15 87.28% 1.15
-1.5 12.72% 7.86 — 87.28% 1.15
-1.0 12.72% 7.86 20.22% 4.94 67.06% 1.49
-0.5 32.94% 3.04 — 67.06% 1.49
0 (PK) 32.94% 3.04 29.08% 3.44 37.97% 2.63
+0.5 62.03% 1.61 — 37.97% 2.63
+1.0 62.03% 1.61 22.15% 4.51 15.82% 6.32
+1.5 84.18% 1.19 — 15.82% 6.32
+2.0 84.18% 1.19 10.76% 9.29 5.07% 19.74

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.