Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.28%
Fair Odds 2.16
Draw
26.76%
Fair Odds 3.74
Away Win
26.96%
Fair Odds 3.71
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.99% Fair Odds 8.34

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.16 —
Draw 3.74 —
Away Win 3.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.99% 8.34
2 1-0 10.52% 9.5
3 2-1 9.3% 10.76
4 2-0 8.15% 12.26
5 0-1 7.74% 12.92
6 1-2 6.84% 14.63
7 0-0 6.79% 14.73
8 2-2 5.3% 18.87
9 3-1 4.8% 20.82
10 0-2 4.41% 22.67
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.79%
14.73
7.74%
12.92
4.41%
22.67
1.68%
59.66
0.48%
209.34
0.11%
918.27
1
10.52%
9.5
11.99%
8.34
6.84%
14.63
2.6%
38.49
0.74%
135.06
0.17%
592.42
2
8.15%
12.26
9.3%
10.76
5.3%
18.87
2.01%
49.66
0.57%
174.28
0.13%
764.53
3
4.21%
23.74
4.8%
20.82
2.74%
36.53
1.04%
96.13
0.3%
337.27
0.07%
1479.29
4
1.63%
61.26
1.86%
53.73
1.06%
94.27
0.4%
248.08
0.11%
870.32
0.03%
3816.79
5
0.51%
197.59
0.58%
173.34
0.33%
304.04
0.12%
800.0
0.04%
2808.99
0.01%
12345.68
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.64% · Fair: 157.26
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.78% 21.22%
1.5 45.88% 54.12%
2.5 20.38% 79.62%
3.5 7.21% 92.79%
4.5 2.1% 97.9%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.79% 14.73
1 18.26% 5.48
2 24.56% 4.07
3 22.02% 4.54
4 14.81% 6.75
5+ 13.56% 7.37
Over 2.5 50.39% Under 2.5 49.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.28%
Draw 26.76%
Away Win 26.96%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 50.39%
Under 2.5 49.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 53.58%
No 46.42%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.63% 10.39 14.15% 7.07 76.22% 1.31
-1.5 23.78% 4.21 — 76.22% 1.31
-1.0 23.78% 4.21 23.0% 4.35 53.23% 1.88
-0.5 46.77% 2.14 — 53.23% 1.88
0 (PK) 46.77% 2.14 25.24% 3.96 27.98% 3.57
+0.5 72.02% 1.39 — 27.98% 3.57
+1.0 72.02% 1.39 16.91% 5.91 11.07% 9.04
+1.5 88.93% 1.12 — 11.07% 9.04
+2.0 88.93% 1.12 7.66% 13.06 3.41% 29.31

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.