Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.05%
Fair Odds 2.27
Draw
27.52%
Fair Odds 3.63
Away Win
28.43%
Fair Odds 3.52
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.36% Fair Odds 8.09

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.27 —
Draw 3.63 —
Away Win 3.52 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.36% 8.09
2 1-0 10.84% 9.22
3 2-1 9.02% 11.08
4 0-1 8.47% 11.81
5 2-0 7.92% 12.63
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 7.05% 14.19
8 2-2 5.14% 19.44
9 0-2 4.83% 20.72
10 3-1 4.39% 22.77
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.47%
11.81
4.83%
20.72
1.83%
54.53
0.52%
191.31
0.12%
838.93
1
10.84%
9.22
12.36%
8.09
7.05%
14.19
2.68%
37.35
0.76%
131.04
0.17%
574.71
2
7.92%
12.63
9.02%
11.08
5.14%
19.44
1.95%
51.16
0.56%
179.5
0.13%
787.4
3
3.85%
25.96
4.39%
22.77
2.5%
39.95
0.95%
105.12
0.27%
368.87
0.06%
1618.12
4
1.41%
71.11
1.6%
62.38
0.91%
109.45
0.35%
288.02
0.1%
1010.1
0.02%
4424.78
5
0.41%
243.55
0.47%
213.63
0.27%
374.81
0.1%
986.19
0.03%
3460.21
0.01%
15151.52
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.51% · Fair: 197.2
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 76.78% 23.22%
1.5 42.87% 57.13%
2.5 18.12% 81.88%
3.5 6.07% 93.93%
4.5 1.68% 98.32%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.05%
Draw 27.52%
Away Win 28.43%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.22%
No 47.78%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.39% 11.92 13.33% 7.5 78.28% 1.28
-1.5 21.72% 4.6 — 78.28% 1.28
-1.0 21.72% 4.6 22.75% 4.4 55.53% 1.8
-0.5 44.47% 2.25 — 55.53% 1.8
0 (PK) 44.47% 2.25 25.99% 3.85 29.54% 3.39
+0.5 70.46% 1.42 — 29.54% 3.39
+1.0 70.46% 1.42 17.76% 5.63 11.78% 8.49
+1.5 88.22% 1.13 — 11.78% 8.49
+2.0 88.22% 1.13 8.13% 12.3 3.65% 27.4

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.