Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.27%
Fair Odds 2.37
Draw
28.1%
Fair Odds 3.56
Away Win
29.63%
Fair Odds 3.38
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.62% Fair Odds 7.92

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.37 —
Draw 3.56 —
Away Win 3.38 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.62% 7.92
2 1-0 11.07% 9.03
3 0-1 9.08% 11.01
4 2-1 8.77% 11.4
5 0-0 7.97% 12.55
6 2-0 7.7% 12.99
7 1-2 7.2% 13.9
8 0-2 5.18% 19.32
9 2-2 5.0% 20.0
10 3-1 4.06% 24.6
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.97%
12.55
9.08%
11.01
5.18%
19.32
1.97%
50.84
0.56%
178.38
0.13%
782.47
1
11.07%
9.03
12.62%
7.92
7.2%
13.9
2.73%
36.58
0.78%
128.34
0.18%
562.75
2
7.7%
12.99
8.77%
11.4
5.0%
20.0
1.9%
52.63
0.54%
184.64
0.12%
809.72
3
3.57%
28.05
4.06%
24.6
2.32%
43.16
0.88%
113.58
0.25%
398.57
0.06%
1748.25
4
1.24%
80.71
1.41%
70.8
0.81%
124.21
0.31%
326.9
0.09%
1146.79
0.02%
5025.13
5
0.34%
290.28
0.39%
254.65
0.22%
446.83
0.09%
1175.09
0.02%
4132.23
0.01%
18181.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.42% · Fair: 235.4
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.09% 24.91%
1.5 40.47% 59.53%
2.5 16.41% 83.59%
3.5 5.26% 94.74%
4.5 1.39% 98.61%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.97% 12.55
1 20.15% 4.96
2 25.49% 3.92
3 21.50% 4.65
4 13.60% 7.35
5+ 11.29% 8.86
Over 2.5 46.39% Under 2.5 53.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.27%
Draw 28.10%
Away Win 29.63%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.39%
Under 2.5 53.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.08%
No 48.92%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.48% 13.37 12.66% 7.9 79.86% 1.25
-1.5 20.14% 4.97 — 79.86% 1.25
-1.0 20.14% 4.97 22.49% 4.45 57.37% 1.74
-0.5 42.63% 2.35 — 57.37% 1.74
0 (PK) 42.63% 2.35 26.56% 3.76 30.81% 3.25
+0.5 69.19% 1.45 — 30.81% 3.25
+1.0 69.19% 1.45 18.45% 5.42 12.36% 8.09
+1.5 87.64% 1.14 — 12.36% 8.09
+2.0 87.64% 1.14 8.51% 11.75 3.85% 26.0

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.