Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
41.24%
Fair Odds 2.42
Draw
28.43%
Fair Odds 3.52
Away Win
30.33%
Fair Odds 3.3
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.76% Fair Odds 7.84

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.42 —
Draw 3.52 —
Away Win 3.3 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.76% 7.84
2 1-0 11.19% 8.93
3 0-1 9.45% 10.58
4 2-1 8.61% 11.61
5 0-0 8.29% 12.06
6 2-0 7.56% 13.24
7 1-2 7.27% 13.75
8 0-2 5.39% 18.56
9 2-2 4.91% 20.37
10 3-1 3.88% 25.8
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.29%
12.06
9.45%
10.58
5.39%
18.56
2.05%
48.85
0.58%
171.38
0.13%
751.88
1
11.19%
8.93
12.76%
7.84
7.27%
13.75
2.76%
36.18
0.79%
126.95
0.18%
556.79
2
7.56%
13.24
8.61%
11.61
4.91%
20.37
1.87%
53.6
0.53%
188.08
0.12%
825.08
3
3.4%
29.41
3.88%
25.8
2.21%
45.27
0.84%
119.12
0.24%
417.89
0.05%
1831.5
4
1.15%
87.15
1.31%
76.45
0.75%
134.12
0.28%
352.98
0.08%
1239.16
0.02%
5434.78
5
0.31%
322.79
0.35%
283.13
0.2%
496.77
0.08%
1307.19
0.02%
4587.16
0.01%
20000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.38% · Fair: 260.42
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.08% 25.92%
1.5 39.08% 60.92%
2.5 15.46% 84.54%
3.5 4.82% 95.18%
4.5 1.24% 98.76%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.29% 12.06
1 20.64% 4.84
2 25.70% 3.89
3 21.33% 4.69
4 13.28% 7.53
5+ 10.75% 9.30
Over 2.5 45.36% Under 2.5 54.64%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 41.24%
Draw 28.43%
Away Win 30.33%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.36%
Under 2.5 54.64%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.39%
No 49.61%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 6.98% 14.32 12.26% 8.16 80.76% 1.24
-1.5 19.24% 5.2 — 80.76% 1.24
-1.0 19.24% 5.2 22.32% 4.48 58.44% 1.71
-0.5 41.56% 2.41 — 58.44% 1.71
0 (PK) 41.56% 2.41 26.89% 3.72 31.55% 3.17
+0.5 68.45% 1.46 — 31.55% 3.17
+1.0 68.45% 1.46 18.85% 5.31 12.7% 7.87
+1.5 87.3% 1.15 — 12.7% 7.87
+2.0 87.3% 1.15 8.74% 11.44 3.96% 25.23

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.