Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.54%
Fair Odds 2.66
Draw
29.55%
Fair Odds 3.38
Away Win
32.91%
Fair Odds 3.04
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.16% Fair Odds 7.6

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.66 —
Draw 3.38 —
Away Win 3.04 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.16% 7.6
2 1-0 11.54% 8.67
3 0-1 10.87% 9.2
4 0-0 9.54% 10.49
5 2-1 7.96% 12.56
6 1-2 7.5% 13.34
7 2-0 6.98% 14.32
8 0-2 6.2% 16.14
9 2-2 4.54% 22.04
10 3-1 3.21% 31.15
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.54%
10.49
10.87%
9.2
6.2%
16.14
2.35%
42.46
0.67%
149.01
0.15%
653.59
1
11.54%
8.67
13.16%
7.6
7.5%
13.34
2.85%
35.1
0.81%
123.14
0.19%
539.96
2
6.98%
14.32
7.96%
12.56
4.54%
22.04
1.72%
58.01
0.49%
203.54
0.11%
892.86
3
2.82%
35.51
3.21%
31.15
1.83%
54.65
0.7%
143.82
0.2%
504.54
0.05%
2212.39
4
0.85%
117.4
0.97%
102.98
0.55%
180.67
0.21%
475.51
0.06%
1669.45
0.01%
7299.27
5
0.21%
485.2
0.24%
425.53
0.13%
746.83
0.05%
1964.64
0.01%
6896.55
0.0%
30303.03
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.27% · Fair: 367.51
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 70.18% 29.82%
1.5 34.1% 65.9%
2.5 12.27% 87.73%
3.5 3.46% 96.54%
4.5 0.8% 99.2%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.54% 10.49
1 22.41% 4.46
2 26.33% 3.80
3 20.63% 4.85
4 12.12% 8.25
5+ 8.97% 11.15
Over 2.5 41.72% Under 2.5 58.28%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.54%
Draw 29.55%
Away Win 32.91%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.72%
Under 2.5 58.28%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.74%
No 52.26%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.37% 18.63 10.8% 9.26 83.83% 1.19
-1.5 16.17% 6.19 — 83.83% 1.19
-1.0 16.17% 6.19 21.55% 4.64 62.28% 1.61
-0.5 37.72% 2.65 — 62.28% 1.61
0 (PK) 37.72% 2.65 27.99% 3.57 34.29% 2.92
+0.5 65.71% 1.52 — 34.29% 2.92
+1.0 65.71% 1.52 20.31% 4.92 13.99% 7.15
+1.5 86.01% 1.16 — 13.99% 7.15
+2.0 86.01% 1.16 9.59% 10.43 4.4% 22.72

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.