Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.0%
Fair Odds 2.7
Draw
29.7%
Fair Odds 3.37
Away Win
33.3%
Fair Odds 3.0
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.2% Fair Odds 7.58

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.7 —
Draw 3.37 —
Away Win 3.0 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.2% 7.58
2 1-0 11.58% 8.64
3 0-1 11.09% 9.02
4 0-0 9.73% 10.28
5 2-1 7.85% 12.73
6 1-2 7.52% 13.29
7 2-0 6.89% 14.52
8 0-2 6.32% 15.82
9 2-2 4.48% 22.34
10 3-1 3.12% 32.1
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.73%
10.28
11.09%
9.02
6.32%
15.82
2.4%
41.62
0.68%
146.05
0.16%
640.61
1
11.58%
8.64
13.2%
7.58
7.52%
13.29
2.86%
34.98
0.81%
122.73
0.19%
538.21
2
6.89%
14.52
7.85%
12.73
4.48%
22.34
1.7%
58.79
0.48%
206.27
0.11%
904.98
3
2.73%
36.6
3.12%
32.1
1.78%
56.32
0.67%
148.19
0.19%
520.02
0.04%
2283.11
4
0.81%
123.0
0.93%
107.9
0.53%
189.29
0.2%
498.26
0.06%
1748.25
0.01%
7692.31
5
0.19%
516.8
0.22%
453.31
0.13%
795.54
0.05%
2092.05
0.01%
7352.94
0.0%
32258.06
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.26% · Fair: 385.06
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 68.02% 31.98%
1.5 31.56% 68.44%
2.5 10.78% 89.22%
3.5 2.88% 97.12%
4.5 0.63% 99.37%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.73% 10.28
1 22.67% 4.41
2 26.41% 3.79
3 20.51% 4.88
4 11.95% 8.37
5+ 8.73% 11.46
Over 2.5 41.19% Under 2.5 58.81%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.00%
Draw 29.70%
Away Win 33.30%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 41.19%
Under 2.5 58.81%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 47.33%
No 52.67%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.15% 19.41 10.58% 9.45 84.26% 1.19
-1.5 15.74% 6.36 — 84.26% 1.19
-1.0 15.74% 6.36 21.42% 4.67 62.84% 1.59
-0.5 37.16% 2.69 — 62.84% 1.59
0 (PK) 37.16% 2.69 28.14% 3.55 34.7% 2.88
+0.5 65.3% 1.53 — 34.7% 2.88
+1.0 65.3% 1.53 20.52% 4.87 14.18% 7.05
+1.5 85.82% 1.17 — 14.18% 7.05
+2.0 85.82% 1.17 9.71% 10.3 4.47% 22.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.