Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.75%
Fair Odds 2.34
Draw
28.06%
Fair Odds 3.56
Away Win
29.2%
Fair Odds 3.42
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.6% Fair Odds 7.94

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.34 —
Draw 3.56 —
Away Win 3.42 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.6% 7.94
2 1-0 11.15% 8.97
3 0-1 9.0% 11.11
4 2-1 8.82% 11.34
5 0-0 7.97% 12.55
6 2-0 7.81% 12.81
7 1-2 7.12% 14.04
8 0-2 5.09% 19.66
9 2-2 4.98% 20.06
10 3-1 4.12% 24.29
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.97%
12.55
9.0%
11.11
5.09%
19.66
1.92%
52.2
0.54%
184.77
0.12%
817.66
1
11.15%
8.97
12.6%
7.94
7.12%
14.04
2.68%
37.29
0.76%
132.0
0.17%
584.11
2
7.81%
12.81
8.82%
11.34
4.98%
20.06
1.88%
53.27
0.53%
188.54
0.12%
834.03
3
3.64%
27.45
4.12%
24.29
2.33%
42.99
0.88%
114.14
0.25%
404.04
0.06%
1788.91
4
1.28%
78.43
1.44%
69.41
0.81%
122.84
0.31%
326.16
0.09%
1154.73
0.02%
5102.04
5
0.36%
280.11
0.4%
247.89
0.23%
438.79
0.09%
1164.14
0.02%
4115.23
0.01%
18181.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.43% · Fair: 232.29
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 75.34% 24.66%
1.5 40.82% 59.18%
2.5 16.65% 83.35%
3.5 5.37% 94.63%
4.5 1.43% 98.57%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.97% 12.55
1 20.15% 4.96
2 25.49% 3.92
3 21.50% 4.65
4 13.60% 7.35
5+ 11.29% 8.86
Over 2.5 46.39% Under 2.5 53.61%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.75%
Draw 28.06%
Away Win 29.20%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 46.39%
Under 2.5 53.61%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 51.0%
No 49.0%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.66% 13.05 12.83% 7.79 79.51% 1.26
-1.5 20.49% 4.88 — 79.51% 1.26
-1.0 20.49% 4.88 22.63% 4.42 56.88% 1.76
-0.5 43.12% 2.32 — 56.88% 1.76
0 (PK) 43.12% 2.32 26.52% 3.77 30.36% 3.29
+0.5 69.64% 1.44 — 30.36% 3.29
+1.0 69.64% 1.44 18.27% 5.47 12.09% 8.27
+1.5 87.91% 1.14 — 12.09% 8.27
+2.0 87.91% 1.14 8.36% 11.96 3.73% 26.78

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.