Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
33.64%
Fair Odds 2.97
Draw
30.39%
Fair Odds 3.29
Away Win
35.98%
Fair Odds 2.78
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.35% Fair Odds 7.49

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.97 —
Draw 3.29 —
Away Win 2.78 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.35% 7.49
2 0-1 12.03% 8.31
3 1-0 11.82% 8.46
4 0-0 10.65% 9.39
5 1-2 7.54% 13.25
6 2-1 7.41% 13.49
7 0-2 6.8% 14.71
8 2-0 6.56% 15.25
9 2-2 4.19% 23.88
10 1-3 2.84% 35.19
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
10.65%
9.39
12.03%
8.31
6.8%
14.71
2.56%
39.06
0.72%
138.27
0.16%
611.62
1
11.82%
8.46
13.35%
7.49
7.54%
13.25
2.84%
35.19
0.8%
124.56
0.18%
551.27
2
6.56%
15.25
7.41%
13.49
4.19%
23.88
1.58%
63.4
0.45%
224.42
0.1%
993.05
3
2.43%
41.21
2.74%
36.47
1.55%
64.55
0.58%
171.35
0.16%
606.43
0.04%
2680.97
4
0.67%
148.5
0.76%
131.42
0.43%
232.61
0.16%
617.67
0.05%
2188.18
0.01%
9708.74
5
0.15%
668.9
0.17%
592.07
0.1%
1048.22
0.04%
2785.52
0.01%
9803.92
0.0%
43478.26
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.21% · Fair: 471.7
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 67.04% 32.96%
1.5 30.46% 69.54%
2.5 10.16% 89.84%
3.5 2.65% 97.35%
4.5 0.56% 99.44%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 10.65% 9.39
1 23.85% 4.19
2 26.71% 3.74
3 19.94% 5.01
4 11.17% 8.95
5+ 7.69% 13.00
Over 2.5 38.8% Under 2.5 61.2%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 33.64%
Draw 30.39%
Away Win 35.98%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 38.8%
Under 2.5 61.2%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 45.39%
No 54.61%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 4.37% 22.86 9.77% 10.24 85.86% 1.16
-1.5 14.14% 7.07 — 85.86% 1.16
-1.0 14.14% 7.07 20.95% 4.77 64.91% 1.54
-0.5 35.09% 2.85 — 64.91% 1.54
0 (PK) 35.09% 2.85 28.82% 3.47 36.09% 2.77
+0.5 63.91% 1.56 — 36.09% 2.77
+1.0 63.91% 1.56 21.33% 4.69 14.76% 6.77
+1.5 85.24% 1.17 — 14.76% 6.77
+2.0 85.24% 1.17 10.12% 9.88 4.64% 21.55

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.