Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
23.48%
Fair Odds 4.26
Draw
32.73%
Fair Odds 3.06
Away Win
43.79%
Fair Odds 2.28
Most Likely Score
0 - 1
Probability 17.07% Fair Odds 5.86

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 4.26 —
Draw 3.06 —
Away Win 2.28 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 0-1 17.07% 5.86
2 0-0 15.11% 6.62
3 1-1 12.97% 7.71
4 1-0 11.48% 8.71
5 0-2 9.65% 10.37
6 1-2 7.33% 13.64
7 2-1 4.93% 20.28
8 2-0 4.36% 22.92
9 0-3 3.63% 27.53
10 2-2 2.79% 35.9
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
15.11%
6.62
17.07%
5.86
9.65%
10.37
3.63%
27.53
1.03%
97.44
0.23%
431.03
1
11.48%
8.71
12.97%
7.71
7.33%
13.64
2.76%
36.22
0.78%
128.21
0.18%
567.21
2
4.36%
22.92
4.93%
20.28
2.79%
35.9
1.05%
95.31
0.3%
337.38
0.07%
1492.54
3
1.11%
90.47
1.25%
80.06
0.71%
141.7
0.27%
376.22
0.08%
1331.56
0.02%
5882.35
4
0.21%
476.19
0.24%
421.41
0.13%
745.71
0.05%
1980.2
0.01%
6993.01
0.0%
31250.0
5
0.03%
3134.8
0.04%
2770.08
0.02%
4901.96
0.01%
12987.01
0.0%
45454.55
0.0%
200000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.12% · Fair: 801.92
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 53.23% 46.77%
1.5 17.69% 82.31%
2.5 4.18% 95.82%
3.5 0.76% 99.24%
4.5 0.11% 99.89%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.7% 32.3%
1.5 31.19% 68.81%
2.5 10.57% 89.43%
3.5 2.8% 97.2%
4.5 0.61% 99.39%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 15.11% 6.62
1 28.55% 3.50
2 26.98% 3.71
3 17.00% 5.88
4 8.03% 12.45
5+ 4.33% 23.11
Over 2.5 29.36% Under 2.5 70.64%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 23.48%
Draw 32.73%
Away Win 43.79%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 29.36%
Under 2.5 70.64%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 36.04%
No 63.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 1.65% 60.44 5.75% 17.38 92.59% 1.08
-1.5 7.41% 13.5 — 92.59% 1.08
-1.0 7.41% 13.5 17.17% 5.82 75.42% 1.33
-0.5 24.58% 4.07 — 75.42% 1.33
0 (PK) 24.58% 4.07 31.15% 3.21 44.27% 2.26
+0.5 55.73% 1.79 — 44.27% 2.26
+1.0 55.73% 1.79 25.53% 3.92 18.75% 5.33
+1.5 81.25% 1.23 — 18.75% 5.33
+2.0 81.25% 1.23 12.72% 7.86 6.02% 16.6

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.