Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
57.2%
Fair Odds 1.75
Draw
22.76%
Fair Odds 4.39
Away Win
20.04%
Fair Odds 4.99
Most Likely Score
2 - 1
Probability 9.89% Fair Odds 10.11

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.75 —
Draw 4.39 —
Away Win 4.99 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 2-1 9.89% 10.11
2 1-1 9.84% 10.16
3 2-0 8.83% 11.32
4 1-0 8.79% 11.38
5 3-1 6.63% 15.09
6 3-0 5.92% 16.9
7 2-2 5.54% 18.05
8 1-2 5.51% 18.14
9 0-1 4.9% 20.42
10 0-0 4.37% 22.87
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
4.37%
22.87
4.9%
20.42
2.74%
36.47
1.02%
97.68
0.29%
348.92
0.06%
1557.63
1
8.79%
11.38
9.84%
10.16
5.51%
18.14
2.06%
48.6
0.58%
173.58
0.13%
774.59
2
8.83%
11.32
9.89%
10.11
5.54%
18.05
2.07%
48.36
0.58%
172.71
0.13%
771.01
3
5.92%
16.9
6.63%
15.09
3.71%
26.95
1.39%
72.18
0.39%
257.8
0.09%
1150.75
4
2.97%
33.63
3.33%
30.03
1.86%
53.63
0.7%
143.64
0.19%
513.08
0.04%
2288.33
5
1.2%
83.66
1.34%
74.7
0.75%
133.39
0.28%
357.27
0.08%
1275.51
0.02%
5681.82
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 1.8% · Fair: 55.68
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 86.6% 13.4%
1.5 59.67% 40.33%
2.5 32.6% 67.4%
3.5 14.47% 85.53%
4.5 5.36% 94.64%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 4.37% 22.87
1 13.68% 7.31
2 21.42% 4.67
3 22.34% 4.48
4 17.48% 5.72
5+ 20.70% 4.83
Over 2.5 60.53% Under 2.5 39.47%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 57.20%
Draw 22.76%
Away Win 20.04%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 60.53%
Under 2.5 39.47%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 58.34%
No 41.66%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 17.16% 5.83 17.63% 5.67 65.21% 1.53
-1.5 34.79% 2.87 — 65.21% 1.53
-1.0 34.79% 2.87 23.17% 4.32 42.04% 2.38
-0.5 57.96% 1.73 — 42.04% 2.38
0 (PK) 57.96% 1.73 21.35% 4.68 20.69% 4.83
+0.5 79.31% 1.26 — 20.69% 4.83
+1.0 79.31% 1.26 12.91% 7.75 7.78% 12.86
+1.5 92.22% 1.08 — 7.78% 12.86
+2.0 92.22% 1.08 5.47% 18.27 2.3% 43.45

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.