Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
50.56%
Fair Odds 1.98
Draw
25.4%
Fair Odds 3.94
Away Win
24.05%
Fair Odds 4.16
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.3% Fair Odds 8.85

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 1.98 —
Draw 3.94 —
Away Win 4.16 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.3% 8.85
2 1-0 10.09% 9.91
3 2-1 9.66% 10.35
4 2-0 8.63% 11.59
5 0-1 6.61% 15.13
6 1-2 6.33% 15.8
7 0-0 5.9% 16.95
8 3-1 5.51% 18.16
9 2-2 5.41% 18.48
10 3-0 4.92% 20.33
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
5.9%
16.95
6.61%
15.13
3.7%
27.02
1.38%
72.37
0.39%
258.46
0.09%
1153.4
1
10.09%
9.91
11.3%
8.85
6.33%
15.8
2.36%
42.32
0.66%
151.15
0.15%
674.76
2
8.63%
11.59
9.66%
10.35
5.41%
18.48
2.02%
49.5
0.57%
176.77
0.13%
789.27
3
4.92%
20.33
5.51%
18.16
3.08%
32.42
1.15%
86.84
0.32%
310.17
0.07%
1385.04
4
2.1%
47.56
2.35%
42.47
1.32%
75.84
0.49%
203.13
0.14%
725.69
0.03%
3236.25
5
0.72%
139.08
0.81%
124.18
0.45%
221.73
0.17%
593.82
0.05%
2123.14
0.01%
9433.96
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.93% · Fair: 107.91
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 81.91% 18.09%
1.5 50.99% 49.01%
2.5 24.54% 75.46%
3.5 9.47% 90.53%
4.5 3.03% 96.97%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 5.90% 16.95
1 16.70% 5.99
2 23.63% 4.23
3 22.29% 4.49
4 15.77% 6.34
5+ 15.70% 6.37
Over 2.5 53.77% Under 2.5 46.23%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 50.56%
Draw 25.40%
Away Win 24.05%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 53.77%
Under 2.5 46.23%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 55.19%
No 44.81%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 12.15% 8.23 15.64% 6.39 72.21% 1.38
-1.5 27.79% 3.6 — 72.21% 1.38
-1.0 27.79% 3.6 23.38% 4.28 48.83% 2.05
-0.5 51.17% 1.95 — 48.83% 2.05
0 (PK) 51.17% 1.95 23.92% 4.18 24.91% 4.01
+0.5 75.09% 1.33 — 24.91% 4.01
+1.0 75.09% 1.33 15.31% 6.53 9.6% 10.42
+1.5 90.4% 1.11 — 9.6% 10.42
+2.0 90.4% 1.11 6.71% 14.91 2.89% 34.61

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.