Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
48.43%
Fair Odds 2.06
Draw
26.19%
Fair Odds 3.82
Away Win
25.39%
Fair Odds 3.94
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 11.72% Fair Odds 8.54

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.06 —
Draw 3.82 —
Away Win 3.94 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 11.72% 8.54
2 1-0 10.46% 9.56
3 2-1 9.49% 10.54
4 2-0 8.47% 11.8
5 0-1 7.23% 13.83
6 1-2 6.56% 15.24
7 0-0 6.46% 15.49
8 2-2 5.31% 18.82
9 3-1 5.12% 19.51
10 3-0 4.58% 21.86
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
6.46%
15.49
7.23%
13.83
4.05%
24.69
1.51%
66.14
0.42%
236.24
0.09%
1054.85
1
10.46%
9.56
11.72%
8.54
6.56%
15.24
2.45%
40.83
0.69%
145.82
0.15%
651.04
2
8.47%
11.8
9.49%
10.54
5.31%
18.82
1.98%
50.4
0.56%
180.02
0.12%
803.86
3
4.58%
21.86
5.12%
19.51
2.87%
34.85
1.07%
93.34
0.3%
333.33
0.07%
1488.1
4
1.85%
53.97
2.08%
48.18
1.16%
86.04
0.43%
230.47
0.12%
823.05
0.03%
3676.47
5
0.6%
166.56
0.67%
148.72
0.38%
265.53
0.14%
711.24
0.04%
2538.07
0.01%
11363.64
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.75% · Fair: 134.16
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 80.21% 19.79%
1.5 48.15% 51.85%
2.5 22.18% 77.82%
3.5 8.16% 91.84%
4.5 2.48% 97.52%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 6.46% 15.49
1 17.69% 5.65
2 24.24% 4.13
3 22.14% 4.52
4 15.16% 6.59
5+ 14.31% 6.99
Over 2.5 51.61% Under 2.5 48.39%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 48.43%
Draw 26.19%
Away Win 25.39%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 51.61%
Under 2.5 48.39%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 54.04%
No 45.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 10.78% 9.28 14.91% 6.71 74.31% 1.35
-1.5 25.69% 3.89 — 74.31% 1.35
-1.0 25.69% 3.89 23.3% 4.29 51.01% 1.96
-0.5 48.99% 2.04 — 51.01% 1.96
0 (PK) 48.99% 2.04 24.69% 4.05 26.33% 3.8
+0.5 73.67% 1.36 — 26.33% 3.8
+1.0 73.67% 1.36 16.11% 6.21 10.22% 9.79
+1.5 89.78% 1.11 — 10.22% 9.79
+2.0 89.78% 1.11 7.13% 14.03 3.09% 32.34

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.