Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
46.24%
Fair Odds 2.16
Draw
26.98%
Fair Odds 3.71
Away Win
26.79%
Fair Odds 3.73
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.11% Fair Odds 8.26

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.16 —
Draw 3.71 —
Away Win 3.73 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.11% 8.26
2 1-0 10.81% 9.25
3 2-1 9.26% 10.8
4 2-0 8.27% 12.09
5 0-1 7.91% 12.64
6 0-0 7.07% 14.15
7 1-2 6.78% 14.75
8 2-2 5.19% 19.28
9 3-1 4.72% 21.17
10 0-2 4.43% 22.57
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.07%
14.15
7.91%
12.64
4.43%
22.57
1.65%
60.45
0.46%
215.89
0.1%
963.39
1
10.81%
9.25
12.11%
8.26
6.78%
14.75
2.53%
39.51
0.71%
141.1
0.16%
629.72
2
8.27%
12.09
9.26%
10.8
5.19%
19.28
1.94%
51.64
0.54%
184.43
0.12%
823.72
3
4.22%
23.71
4.72%
21.17
2.65%
37.81
0.99%
101.27
0.28%
361.66
0.06%
1615.51
4
1.61%
61.99
1.81%
55.35
1.01%
98.83
0.38%
264.76
0.11%
945.18
0.02%
4219.41
5
0.49%
202.59
0.55%
180.86
0.31%
323.0
0.12%
865.05
0.03%
3086.42
0.01%
13888.89
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.6% · Fair: 168.04
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.35% 21.65%
1.5 45.22% 54.78%
2.5 19.87% 80.13%
3.5 6.95% 93.05%
4.5 2.0% 98.0%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.07% 14.15
1 18.72% 5.34
2 24.81% 4.03
3 21.91% 4.56
4 14.52% 6.89
5+ 12.97% 7.71
Over 2.5 49.4% Under 2.5 50.6%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 46.24%
Draw 26.98%
Away Win 26.79%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.4%
Under 2.5 50.6%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.78%
No 47.22%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.47% 10.56 14.13% 7.08 76.4% 1.31
-1.5 23.6% 4.24 — 76.4% 1.31
-1.0 23.6% 4.24 23.13% 4.32 53.27% 1.88
-0.5 46.73% 2.14 — 53.27% 1.88
0 (PK) 46.73% 2.14 25.46% 3.93 27.81% 3.6
+0.5 72.19% 1.39 — 27.81% 3.6
+1.0 72.19% 1.39 16.93% 5.91 10.88% 9.19
+1.5 89.12% 1.12 — 10.88% 9.19
+2.0 89.12% 1.12 7.57% 13.21 3.31% 30.21

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.