Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
45.99%
Fair Odds 2.17
Draw
27.06%
Fair Odds 3.7
Away Win
26.95%
Fair Odds 3.71
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.15% Fair Odds 8.23

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.17 —
Draw 3.7 —
Away Win 3.71 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.15% 8.23
2 1-0 10.85% 9.22
3 2-1 9.23% 10.83
4 2-0 8.24% 12.13
5 0-1 7.99% 12.51
6 0-0 7.14% 14.01
7 1-2 6.8% 14.7
8 2-2 5.17% 19.34
9 3-1 4.68% 21.38
10 0-2 4.48% 22.34
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.14%
14.01
7.99%
12.51
4.48%
22.34
1.67%
59.84
0.47%
213.72
0.1%
954.2
1
10.85%
9.22
12.15%
8.23
6.8%
14.7
2.54%
39.37
0.71%
140.61
0.16%
627.75
2
8.24%
12.13
9.23%
10.83
5.17%
19.34
1.93%
51.81
0.54%
185.01
0.12%
825.76
3
4.18%
23.94
4.68%
21.38
2.62%
38.17
0.98%
102.25
0.27%
365.23
0.06%
1631.32
4
1.59%
63.0
1.78%
56.26
1.0%
100.45
0.37%
269.11
0.1%
960.61
0.02%
4291.85
5
0.48%
207.25
0.54%
185.05
0.3%
330.47
0.11%
884.96
0.03%
3164.56
0.01%
14084.51
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.58% · Fair: 172.47
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 78.13% 21.87%
1.5 44.88% 55.12%
2.5 19.62% 80.38%
3.5 6.82% 93.18%
4.5 1.95% 98.05%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.14% 14.01
1 18.84% 5.31
2 24.87% 4.02
3 21.88% 4.57
4 14.44% 6.92
5+ 12.83% 7.79
Over 2.5 49.16% Under 2.5 50.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 45.99%
Draw 27.06%
Away Win 26.95%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 49.16%
Under 2.5 50.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.64%
No 47.36%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 9.33% 10.72 14.04% 7.12 76.63% 1.3
-1.5 23.37% 4.28 — 76.63% 1.3
-1.0 23.37% 4.28 23.1% 4.33 53.53% 1.87
-0.5 46.47% 2.15 — 53.53% 1.87
0 (PK) 46.47% 2.15 25.54% 3.91 27.98% 3.57
+0.5 72.02% 1.39 — 27.98% 3.57
+1.0 72.02% 1.39 17.02% 5.87 10.96% 9.13
+1.5 89.04% 1.12 — 10.96% 9.13
+2.0 89.04% 1.12 7.62% 13.12 3.33% 29.99

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.