Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
44.99%
Fair Odds 2.22
Draw
27.41%
Fair Odds 3.65
Away Win
27.6%
Fair Odds 3.62
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.31% Fair Odds 8.12

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.22 —
Draw 3.65 —
Away Win 3.62 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.31% 8.12
2 1-0 10.99% 9.1
3 2-1 9.11% 10.98
4 0-1 8.32% 12.02
5 2-0 8.13% 12.29
6 0-0 7.43% 13.46
7 1-2 6.89% 14.5
8 2-2 5.1% 19.6
9 0-2 4.66% 21.47
10 3-1 4.49% 22.25
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
7.43%
13.46
8.32%
12.02
4.66%
21.47
1.74%
57.5
0.49%
205.34
0.11%
916.59
1
10.99%
9.1
12.31%
8.12
6.89%
14.5
2.57%
38.85
0.72%
138.75
0.16%
619.58
2
8.13%
12.29
9.11%
10.98
5.1%
19.6
1.9%
52.5
0.53%
187.51
0.12%
836.82
3
4.01%
24.92
4.49%
22.25
2.52%
39.73
0.94%
106.42
0.26%
380.08
0.06%
1697.79
4
1.48%
67.35
1.66%
60.13
0.93%
107.38
0.35%
287.6
0.1%
1027.75
0.02%
4587.16
5
0.44%
227.53
0.49%
203.17
0.28%
362.71
0.1%
971.82
0.03%
3472.22
0.01%
15384.62
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.52% · Fair: 190.99
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 77.24% 22.76%
1.5 43.55% 56.45%
2.5 18.61% 81.39%
3.5 6.32% 93.68%
4.5 1.76% 98.23%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 7.43% 13.46
1 19.31% 5.18
2 25.10% 3.98
3 21.76% 4.60
4 14.14% 7.07
5+ 12.26% 8.16
Over 2.5 48.16% Under 2.5 51.84%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 44.99%
Draw 27.41%
Away Win 27.60%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 48.16%
Under 2.5 51.84%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 52.04%
No 47.96%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 8.78% 11.39 13.67% 7.31 77.55% 1.29
-1.5 22.45% 4.45 — 77.55% 1.29
-1.0 22.45% 4.45 23.0% 4.35 54.55% 1.83
-0.5 45.45% 2.2 — 54.55% 1.83
0 (PK) 45.45% 2.2 25.88% 3.86 28.67% 3.49
+0.5 71.33% 1.4 — 28.67% 3.49
+1.0 71.33% 1.4 17.4% 5.75 11.27% 8.88
+1.5 88.73% 1.13 — 11.27% 8.88
+2.0 88.73% 1.13 7.83% 12.77 3.44% 29.1

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.