Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
42.45%
Fair Odds 2.36
Draw
28.27%
Fair Odds 3.54
Away Win
29.28%
Fair Odds 3.41
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 12.69% Fair Odds 7.88

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.36 —
Draw 3.54 —
Away Win 3.41 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 12.69% 7.88
2 1-0 11.33% 8.83
3 0-1 9.19% 10.88
4 2-1 8.75% 11.42
5 0-0 8.21% 12.18
6 2-0 7.82% 12.79
7 1-2 7.1% 14.07
8 0-2 5.15% 19.42
9 2-2 4.9% 20.4
10 3-1 4.03% 24.83
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
8.21%
12.18
9.19%
10.88
5.15%
19.42
1.92%
52.03
0.54%
185.8
0.12%
829.19
1
11.33%
8.83
12.69%
7.88
7.1%
14.07
2.65%
37.7
0.74%
134.64
0.17%
600.96
2
7.82%
12.79
8.75%
11.42
4.9%
20.4
1.83%
54.64
0.51%
195.12
0.11%
871.08
3
3.6%
27.81
4.03%
24.83
2.25%
44.35
0.84%
118.78
0.24%
424.27
0.05%
1893.94
4
1.24%
80.62
1.39%
71.98
0.78%
128.53
0.29%
344.23
0.08%
1230.01
0.02%
5494.51
5
0.34%
292.06
0.38%
260.82
0.21%
465.77
0.08%
1246.88
0.02%
4464.29
0.01%
20000.0
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.4% · Fair: 247.46
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 74.84% 25.16%
1.5 40.12% 59.88%
2.5 16.17% 83.83%
3.5 5.15% 94.85%
4.5 1.35% 98.65%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 8.21% 12.18
1 20.52% 4.87
2 25.65% 3.90
3 21.38% 4.68
4 13.36% 7.48
5+ 10.88% 9.19
Over 2.5 45.62% Under 2.5 54.38%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 42.45%
Draw 28.27%
Away Win 29.28%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 45.62%
Under 2.5 54.38%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 50.42%
No 49.58%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 7.46% 13.41 12.71% 7.87 79.84% 1.25
-1.5 20.16% 4.96 — 79.84% 1.25
-1.0 20.16% 4.96 22.65% 4.41 57.19% 1.75
-0.5 42.81% 2.34 — 57.19% 1.75
0 (PK) 42.81% 2.34 26.73% 3.74 30.46% 3.28
+0.5 69.54% 1.44 — 30.46% 3.28
+1.0 69.54% 1.44 18.38% 5.44 12.08% 8.28
+1.5 87.92% 1.14 — 12.08% 8.28
+2.0 87.92% 1.14 8.37% 11.95 3.71% 26.98

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.