Football Poisson Calculator

xG-Based Match Probability & Fair Odds Engine

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INPUT EXPECTED GOALS (XG)
Advanced Options
Model uses an enhanced Poisson for football: slightly higher draw probability and favorite outcomes.
PREDICTION SNAPSHOT
Home Win
37.42%
Fair Odds 2.67
Draw
29.84%
Fair Odds 3.35
Away Win
32.75%
Fair Odds 3.05
Most Likely Score
1 - 1
Probability 13.23% Fair Odds 7.56

Match odds & output

FAIR ODDS COMPARISON
Market Market Odds Fair Odds ? Model-calculated fair price based on probability. Edge ? Difference between bookmaker odds and model fair odds. Positive edge indicates potential value.
Home Win 2.67 —
Draw 3.35 —
Away Win 3.05 —
Find Value Opportunities

Compare model fair odds with bookmaker prices to spot positive EV bets.

See Value Bets →
Correct Score Probability & Fair Odds
# Correct Score Prob Odds
1 1-1 13.23% 7.56
2 1-0 11.81% 8.47
3 0-1 11.12% 8.99
4 0-0 9.93% 10.07
5 2-1 7.87% 12.7
6 1-2 7.41% 13.5
7 2-0 7.03% 14.23
8 0-2 6.23% 16.06
9 2-2 4.41% 22.69
10 3-1 3.12% 32.03
SCORE MATRIX Home Goals ↓ · Away Goals →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0
9.93%
10.07
11.12%
8.99
6.23%
16.06
2.32%
43.03
0.65%
153.66
0.15%
685.87
1
11.81%
8.47
13.23%
7.56
7.41%
13.5
2.77%
36.15
0.77%
129.13
0.17%
576.37
2
7.03%
14.23
7.87%
12.7
4.41%
22.69
1.65%
60.76
0.46%
217.01
0.1%
968.99
3
2.79%
35.87
3.12%
32.03
1.75%
57.19
0.65%
153.19
0.18%
547.05
0.04%
2444.99
4
0.83%
120.57
0.93%
107.65
0.52%
192.23
0.19%
514.93
0.05%
1838.24
0.01%
8196.72
5
0.2%
506.59
0.22%
452.28
0.12%
807.75
0.05%
2164.5
0.01%
7751.94
0.0%
34482.76
Any other score (6+ goals either side) 0.25% · Fair: 400.48
INDIVIDUAL TEAM TOTAL GOALS
Home Team
Over Under
0.5 69.58% 30.42%
1.5 33.38% 66.62%
2.5 11.84% 88.16%
3.5 3.29% 96.71%
4.5 0.75% 99.25%
Away Team
Over Under
0.5 67.37% 32.63%
1.5 30.83% 69.17%
2.5 10.36% 89.64%
3.5 2.72% 97.28%
4.5 0.59% 99.41%
TOTAL GOALS IN MATCH
Goals Prob Odds
0 9.93% 10.07
1 22.93% 4.36
2 26.48% 3.78
3 20.39% 4.90
4 11.78% 8.49
5+ 8.49% 11.78
Over 2.5 40.66% Under 2.5 59.34%
KEY MARKET PROBABILITIES
1X2
Home Win 37.42%
Draw 29.84%
Away Win 32.75%
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5 40.66%
Under 2.5 59.34%
Both to score (BTTS)
Yes 46.88%
No 53.12%
Asian Handicap Probability ? Probabilities are calculated from the Poisson score model. Push applies to whole-number Asian handicap lines. Home Handicap
Line Home Side Push Away Side
-2.0 5.23% 19.12 10.72% 9.33 84.05% 1.19
-1.5 15.95% 6.27 — 84.05% 1.19
-1.0 15.95% 6.27 21.64% 4.62 62.41% 1.6
-0.5 37.59% 2.66 — 62.41% 1.6
0 (PK) 37.59% 2.66 28.27% 3.54 34.14% 2.93
+0.5 65.86% 1.52 — 34.14% 2.93
+1.0 65.86% 1.52 20.37% 4.91 13.77% 7.26
+1.5 86.23% 1.16 — 13.77% 7.26
+2.0 86.23% 1.16 9.5% 10.53 4.27% 23.39

HOW THE MODEL WORKS

Poisson Distribution
xG Input
Adjustments
Probability Output

All values use the Poisson PMF (Wikipedia, EN).

Limits of the Poisson model

Strong model, with caveats:

  • Independent goals = simplifying assumption
  • Red cards and game state shifts are not in the model
  • Very low/high xG can skew accuracy
Learn more
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How to use the Poisson calculator

  1. Enter the home xG
  2. Enter the away xG
  3. Click Calculate (or use live update)
  4. Review Correct Score probabilities/fair odds plus match outcome distributions

For anyone doing data-led football work.

Why Poisson helps xG models

xG tracks chance quality, not just past goals.

Benefits such as

  • Less noise from finishing luck
  • Matches predictions to underlying xG/quality
  • Fair-odds from clean probabilities
  • Spot model vs book value

Poisson is a staple in football AI / ML stacks.

Frequently asked questions (FAQ)

It models score odds from your xG inputs for the match and markets.

Good for goal counts; pair with xG + form/situational context for best use.

Yes: derive fair prob/odds, compare to books for value-hunting (not a tip service).

Use your best pre-kickoff xG read (team strength, form, opponent) — the tool is agnostic to the source

Yes. Your xG inputs fill the scoreline grid, each line with a probability, same model as 1X2 & BTTS.

Chance each team scores 1+ . Yes/No from the same xG-Poisson as the correct-score view.